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The results of ended matches are recorded for each scenario.
The win percent given is the one for side 1. For side 2 take the complement to 100.
Likewise the levels of victory are recorded viewed from side 1.
Also mentioned is the odds based on ended matches that the scenario is balanced towards side 1 , draw, side 2, or random (no outcome is more likely than any other, so the match is very player dependent).
win percent gives also this information, but does not take into account the number of matches played, which the odds do. Besides, 50% can mean only OV or OD, or only draws.
You read the odds like this :
by Legun
All scenarios are divided for 3 groups:
Tested and probed scenarios are subject of my indicators Results of resolved matches are used to create 3 indicators:
Detailed formula: balance = 1 – absolute value ((win pct – 50)/50).
Detailed formula: popularity = 1 – power3(max number of matches – number of matches)/power3(max number of matches)
Detailed formula: normality = 1 – power0,66(sum(chi2)/(6*power2(number of matches)))
Balance, popularity and normality are used to create complex, weighted indicator called trustworthiness. Popularity is least important component, everything else is P2C2E (problem too complex to explain).
Detailed formula: trustworthiness = power3(1((0,9*(1normality)+0,1*(1popularity))*root(0,75*(1balance)+0,25*(1popularity)))
fill in your win percent and click the arrows to see
how many points you will receive on this scen depending on the outcome.
This is for large scores. Expect higher winnings than displayed if your
score is below 5000 points.
if your score is currently 0, let the 0 for win pct and you get
the points for your first match.
We considered the scenario is balanced to draw if for 922 ended matches the outcomes are distributed like this :
balance  OV  SV  MV  D  MD  SD  OD

D  5  120  210  252  210  120  5

which corresponds to a normal distribution centered at DRAW.
Likewise for balanced to side 1 and balanced to side 2 cases, we considered the same kind of distribution, but shifted to MV or to MD, which gives for 71 ended matches this distribution :
balance  OV  SV  MV  D  MD  SD  OD

S1  25  20  10  5  5  5  1

S2  1  5  5  5  10  20  25

The random distribution gives the same weight to all outcomes (1/7).
Then each ended match drives the odds for S1, Draw, S2 or random hypothese up or down, and so one may emerge after enough matches.
We also considered that before looking at any ended match, a scenario has 50% chances to be balanced to draw, 20% chances to be balanced towards side 1, same for side 2, and 10% chances to be random.
Scenario with odds above 100 against 1 are marked red, scenario with odds between 5 and 100 are marked green.
With these conditions, here are for one match the odds values :
outcome  odds

OV  6:1 for side1

OD  6:1 for side2

SV or SD  3:1 for draw

MV or MD  8:1 for draw

DRAW  13:1 for draw
