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Scenario page

The results of ended matches are recorded for each scenario.

The win percent given is the one for side 1. For side 2 take the complement to 100.

Likewise the levels of victory are recorded viewed from side 1.

Also mentioned is the odds based on ended matches that the scenario is balanced towards side 1 , draw, side 2, or random (no outcome is more likely than any other, so the match is very player dependent).

win percent gives also this information, but does not take into account the number of matches played, which the odds do. Besides, 50% can mean only OV or OD, or only draws.

You read the odds like this :

TW indicator

by Legun

All scenarios are divided for 3 groups:

  1. Tested – scenario played at least 5 times
  2. Probed – scenario played 2, 3 or 4 times
  3. Initiated – scenario played one time only

Tested and probed scenarios are subject of my indicators Results of resolved matches are used to create 3 indicators:

  1. Balance – this is win pct transferred to %. 100% of balance means 50% of win pct, 0% of balance means 0% or 100% of win pct).

    Detailed formula: balance = 1 – absolute value ((win pct – 50)/50).

  2. Popularity – this is indicator based on relation between number of matches of the scenario and number of matches of scenario which is most popular on RD. Function “power of 3” is used to make it working this way, that each next match causes lower increase of popularity.

    Detailed formula: popularity = 1 – power3(max number of matches – number of matches)/power3(max number of matches)

  3. Normality – this is indicator based on distribution of results, kind of “anti-oddness”. It penalizes scenario with one result more probably than others, not depend the result is OV, MD or DRAW. Scenario played 77 times should have distribution of results “10-10-10-10-10-10-10” (OV-SV-MV-D-MD-SD-OD). But “Hell’s Highway” has real distribution “21-0-2-4-3-0-47”, so its normality is 36% only. A non-linear function is used to stress existing differences.

    Detailed formula: normality = 1 – power0,66(sum(chi2)/(6*power2(number of matches)))

Balance, popularity and normality are used to create complex, weighted indicator called trustworthiness. Popularity is least important component, everything else is P2C2E (problem too complex to explain).

Detailed formula: trustworthiness = power3(1-((0,9*(1-normality)+0,1*(1-popularity))*root(0,75*(1-balance)+0,25*(1-popularity)))

expected winnings

fill in your win percent and click the arrows to see how many points you will receive on this scen depending on the outcome.
This is for large scores. Expect higher winnings than displayed if your score is below 5000 points.
if your score is currently 0, let the 0 for win pct and you get the points for your first match.

How do you compute the odds ?

We considered the scenario is balanced to draw if for 922 ended matches the outcomes are distributed like this :

balance OV SV MV D MD SDOD
D 5 120 210 252 210 120 5

which corresponds to a normal distribution centered at DRAW.

Likewise for balanced to side 1 and balanced to side 2 cases, we considered the same kind of distribution, but shifted to MV or to MD, which gives for 71 ended matches this distribution :

balance OV SV MV D MD SD OD
S1 25 20 10 5 5 5 1
S2 1 5 5 5 10 20 25

The random distribution gives the same weight to all outcomes (1/7).

Then each ended match drives the odds for S1, Draw, S2 or random hypothese up or down, and so one may emerge after enough matches.

We also considered that before looking at any ended match, a scenario has 50% chances to be balanced to draw, 20% chances to be balanced towards side 1, same for side 2, and 10% chances to be random.

Scenario with odds above 100 against 1 are marked red, scenario with odds between 5 and 100 are marked green.

With these conditions, here are for one match the odds values :

outcome odds
OV 6:1 for side1
OD 6:1 for side2
SV or SD 3:1 for draw
MV or MD 8:1 for draw
DRAW 13:1 for draw