Toaw Scenario: The Christmas War

Palestine,
December 15, 2001,

Israel army of 309 units opposed to Arab League army of 501 units
for a battle of complexity 1.82 at Battalion(II) level
on a 2.5 Km/Hex map
for 60 turns of 6 Hours each.

by Al Sandrik submited on 25-11-2002

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Briefing
The Christmas War "And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these thing must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom" (Matthew 24:6-7). Date: Morning, 15 December 2001 Place: Israel, Palestine (West Bank), Syria, Jordan and the Lebanon Scale: 6 hour turns, 5 Km/Hex Length: up to 60 turns or 15 days Units: Division, Brigade and Battalion Side One: Israel Side Two: Palestine and the Arab League Best played as the Israeli/IDF Player human, but can be played as either side. Author: Al Sandrik E-mail: Asandrik@bellsouth.net My most sincere thanks to Mr. Greg Lawrence who kindly allowed me to use his Golan map as the base map for this scenario. Thank You. The American, "War on Terrorism"s greatest casualty became the, once close, Israeli-American relationship. Seeing his nation increasingly frozen out as America courted Islamic states, hostile to Israel, for the "War", Prime Minister Ariel Sharon increasing steered his own course in response to Hamas, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Islamic Jihad and Palestinian Authority (PA) sniping, mortaring and disruption of daily Israeli life. The assassination of an Israeli Cabinet member (General Zeevi, an ultra-nationalist who had resigned from the government just days before to protest Israeli inaction against the PA) proved to be the final turning point. Israeli frustration led to a week long operation in the Territories (with a total of 52 Palestinians killed during the operation), and immediate and negative feedback from American State Department. Shimon Peres immediately rebuffed Secretary of State Colin Powell's demand that, "Israeli forces immediately withdraw from the Territories and remain out of them." Sharon flatly refused the demand and stated IDF troops would remain until the PFLP assassins where arrested by the PA. The next day the Bush administration seemed to soften its' tone toward Israel, calling for the PA to arrest the assassins and requesting an IDF withdraw. The tone was softened but the damage was done. From this point on Israel would go her own way. After the IDF withdraw the situation only worsened. Hizbollah shelled the Sheba Farms area with IDF/IAF counter attacks. Shooting continued from Beit Jalla (into Gilo) and the Gaza. Suicide bombers emboldened attacked malls and bus stations. By early December the Sharon Government coalition was near collapse. Ultra nationalist parties threatened to resign, Peres's Labor Party countered with a demand for renewed negations, and a new but vocal "Dove Party" demanded the total dismantling of the Israeli Settlements east of the Green Line (in "Palestinian Territory"). Labor called for a Party conference on December 7th at the Tel Aviv Hyatt. As Peres was addressing the gathering a truck raced toward the building. In the few, brief seconds which they had, Israeli security forces responded, first by firing toward the driver and then by firing at the truck's tires. Nothing seemed to stop it and finally as the truck penetrated the lobby 4000 pounds of high explosive detonated. Peres and most of the Labor Party leadership perished in the attack. Sharon immediately blamed the PA for the attack and called for a meeting of the remaining Cabinet members. Upon leaving that meeting he quoted President George Bush Sr's Gulf War remarks. stating, "This will not stand." The subsequent investigation determined that the cab of the truck had been armored with bullet proof glass and lead plating to protect the driver. The tires where solid rubber and thus couldn't be blown out and the gas tank was protected. The truck was essentially a tank, and the Mossad quickly (December 9th) identified the Hamas neighborhood in Jenin and actual shop where the bomb was produced. Sharon began to mobilize three IDF reserve divisions on the 10th. The stated intention of the IDF was to once and for all destroy the PA and the militant groups infesting the Territories. Sharon repeated, "The era of Arafat is now ended once and for all and unequivocally." The United States embroiled in Operation "Enduring Freedom" appealed for calm, but Saudi Arabia claiming the American continuing support of Israel had become too much for them to bear ordered American forces out of the Kingdom immediately. On the 12th IDF forces began to mass on the Green Line between Israel and the Territories as the Arab League meet in Riyadh. The Arab League, with Egypt opting out, declared any attack on Palestine to be an attack on them all. The proclamation called for all Arab League states to offer forces for the defense of Palestine. Arafat declared that an attack on the PA would result in the destruction of all Zionist settlements in the Territories. Proclaiming that this was not 1967, Arab Air Forces were placed on 24 hour alert and over the next two days were moved to forward air fields in Jordan and Syria. Arab Forces were on the move, but Syrian and Jordanian forces took a largely defensive stand until the reinforcements arrived. As the evening of the 14th rolled around, three IDF divisions were fully deployed on the Green line, PLO Force 17 guerillas were snipping at the Settlements and Arab Air Forces were at the ready. Although Egypt and Lebanon stated they would not engage the Israel, unless attacked, both mobilized reserves, tying down IDF forces on their respective borders. Finally at Midnight the Arab League made it clear, "If Israel enters any Palestinian Territory they would attack from Syria and Jordan, it would result in all out war." Sharon disregarded this communiqué, stating they haven't moved troops forward to offensive positions and are just playing for Arab public opinion, "These threats may play well on Al Jeezara but not with us." At 4 A.M. Israeli troops advanced into Palestinian territory... NOTES: 1. Israeli Arabs may revolt, if they do destroying Israeli Arab units will result in the Arab Player gaining 5 VP's per unit destroyed. International world opinion decides Israel is being too brutal in her reaction to Israeli Arab unrest (forget the fact that they have guns and in the scenario are cutting supply lines, the camera never lies and this is the Middle East who cares about impartiality). 2. The Arab League receive (permanently) 25 VP's per each hex of Jerusalem occupied at any time (for a total of 100 VP's). 3. The Arab League MAY (about a 50 percent chance) receive 50 VP's for each Arab Capital occupied by the IDF. World opinion turns against Israel for capturing a capital. 4. Each Israeli Settlement destroyed yields a permanent 10 VP's for he Arab League player. The destruction plays well on Al Jeezara, while thw Americans (involved in "Enduring Freedom" turn a blind eye. Is it fair, NO. Who said the Middle East was a fair place to live?). The Arab League may use Biological weapons. This may result in the release of IDF Nuclear Weapons. 5. The capture of Tel Aviv results in the Arab League gaining 50 VP's. (Why doesn't Israeli get 50 VP's due to Arab brutality and adverse world public opinion you ask. Good question, see #1, and #4 above). 6. Guess what, If Israel uses a nuclear weapon the Arab League gains VP's. However the Arab League use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD's, NOTE: they don't have nukes) only results in the release of IDF WMD's. Why do the Arabs get a free hand, see#1, #4 and #5 above. Not to get too political here, but these are the restrictions I see the Israel and the IDF being under. Its possible for the IDF to crush Arab forces and for Israel to loose the war in the court of public/world opinion ( before you E-mail me, I am not Jewish. Believe it or not I have already gotten this question from previous scenarios!). Hints: For the IDF Player lok over the OOB's and observe your advantages over the Arab League. Isolated the West Bank and then move to the Golan. Be careful not to destroy too many "civilian" units. For the Arab Player, wipe out as many Settlements as possible to gain those VPs.

Briefing

The Christmas War

"And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these thing must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom" (Matthew 24:6-7).

Date: Morning, 15 December 2001
Place: Israel, Palestine (West Bank), Syria, Jordan and the Lebanon
Scale: 6 hour turns, 5 Km/Hex
Length: up to 60 turns or 15 days
Units: Division, Brigade and Battalion
Side One: Israel
Side Two: Palestine and the Arab League

Best played as the Israeli/IDF Player human, but can be played as either side.

Author: Al Sandrik
E-mail: Asandrik@bellsouth.net

My most sincere thanks to Mr. Greg Lawrence who kindly allowed me to use his Golan map as the base map for this scenario. Thank You.

The American, "War on Terrorism"s greatest casualty became the, once close, Israeli-American relationship. Seeing his nation increasingly frozen out as America courted Islamic states, hostile to Israel, for the "War", Prime Minister Ariel Sharon increasing steered his own course in response to Hamas, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Islamic Jihad and Palestinian Authority (PA) sniping, mortaring and disruption of daily Israeli life. The assassination of an Israeli Cabinet member (General Zeevi, an ultra-nationalist who had resigned from the government just days before to protest Israeli inaction against the PA) proved to be the final turning point. Israeli frustration led to a week long operation in the Territories (with a total of 52 Palestinians killed during the operation), and immediate and negative feedback from American State Department. Shimon Peres immediately rebuffed Secretary of State Colin Powell's demand that, "Israeli forces immediately withdraw from the Territories and remain out of them." Sharon flatly refused the demand and stated IDF troops would remain until the PFLP assassins where arrested by the PA. The next day the Bush administration seemed to soften its' tone toward Israel, calling for the PA to arrest the assassins and requesting an IDF withdraw. The tone was softened but the damage was done. From this point on Israel would go her own way.

After the IDF withdraw the situation only worsened. Hizbollah shelled the Sheba Farms area with IDF/IAF counter attacks. Shooting continued from Beit Jalla (into Gilo) and the Gaza. Suicide bombers emboldened attacked malls and bus stations. By early December the Sharon Government coalition was near collapse. Ultra nationalist parties threatened to resign, Peres's Labor Party countered with a demand for renewed negations, and a new but vocal "Dove Party" demanded the total dismantling of the Israeli Settlements east of the Green Line (in "Palestinian Territory"). Labor called for a Party conference on December 7th at the Tel Aviv Hyatt. As Peres was addressing the gathering a truck raced toward the building. In the few, brief seconds which they had, Israeli security forces responded, first by firing toward the driver and then by firing at the truck's tires. Nothing seemed to stop it and finally as the truck penetrated the lobby 4000 pounds of high explosive detonated. Peres and most of the Labor Party leadership perished in the attack.

Sharon immediately blamed the PA for the attack and called for a meeting of the remaining Cabinet members. Upon leaving that meeting he quoted President George Bush Sr's Gulf War remarks. stating, "This will not stand." The subsequent investigation determined that the cab of the truck had been armored with bullet proof glass and lead plating to protect the driver. The tires where solid rubber and thus couldn't be blown out and the gas tank was protected. The truck was essentially a tank, and the Mossad quickly (December 9th) identified the Hamas neighborhood in Jenin and actual shop where the bomb was produced. Sharon began to mobilize three IDF reserve divisions on the 10th. The stated intention of the IDF was to once and for all destroy the PA and the militant groups infesting the Territories. Sharon repeated, "The era of Arafat is now ended once and for all and unequivocally." The United States embroiled in Operation "Enduring Freedom" appealed for calm, but Saudi Arabia claiming the American continuing support of Israel had become too much for them to bear ordered American forces out of the Kingdom immediately.

On the 12th IDF forces began to mass on the Green Line between Israel and the Territories as the Arab League meet in Riyadh. The Arab League, with Egypt opting out, declared any attack on Palestine to be an attack on them all. The proclamation called for all Arab League states to offer forces for the defense of Palestine. Arafat declared that an attack on the PA would result in the destruction of all Zionist settlements in the Territories. Proclaiming that this was not 1967, Arab Air Forces were placed on 24 hour alert and over the next two days were moved to forward air fields in Jordan and Syria. Arab Forces were on the move, but Syrian and Jordanian forces took a largely defensive stand until the reinforcements arrived.

As the evening of the 14th rolled around, three IDF divisions were fully deployed on the Green line, PLO Force 17 guerillas were snipping at the Settlements and Arab Air Forces were at the ready. Although Egypt and Lebanon stated they would not engage the Israel, unless attacked, both mobilized reserves, tying down IDF forces on their respective borders. Finally at Midnight the Arab League made it clear, "If Israel enters any Palestinian Territory they would attack from Syria and Jordan, it would result in all out war." Sharon disregarded this communiqué, stating they haven't moved troops forward to offensive positions and are just playing for Arab public opinion, "These threats may play well on Al Jeezara but not with us."

At 4 A.M. Israeli troops advanced into Palestinian territory...

NOTES:

1. Israeli Arabs may revolt, if they do destroying Israeli Arab units will result in the Arab Player gaining 5 VP's per unit destroyed. International world opinion decides Israel is being too brutal in her reaction to Israeli Arab unrest (forget the fact that they have guns and in the scenario are cutting supply lines, the camera never lies and this is the Middle East who cares about impartiality).

2. The Arab League receive (permanently) 25 VP's per each hex of Jerusalem occupied at any time (for a total of 100 VP's).

3. The Arab League MAY (about a 50 percent chance) receive 50 VP's for each Arab Capital occupied by the IDF. World opinion turns against Israel for capturing a capital.

4. Each Israeli Settlement destroyed yields a permanent 10 VP's for he Arab League player. The destruction plays well on Al Jeezara, while thw Americans (involved in "Enduring Freedom" turn a blind eye. Is it fair, NO. Who said the Middle East was a fair place to live?).

The Arab League may use Biological weapons. This may result in the release of IDF Nuclear Weapons.

5. The capture of Tel Aviv results in the Arab League gaining 50 VP's. (Why doesn't Israeli get 50 VP's due to Arab brutality and adverse world public opinion you ask. Good question, see #1, and #4 above).

6. Guess what, If Israel uses a nuclear weapon the Arab League gains VP's. However the Arab League use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD's, NOTE: they don't have nukes) only results in the release of IDF WMD's. Why do the Arabs get a free hand, see#1, #4 and #5 above.

Not to get too political here, but these are the restrictions I see the Israel and the IDF being under. Its possible for the IDF to crush Arab forces and for Israel to loose the war in the court of public/world opinion ( before you E-mail me, I am not Jewish. Believe it or not I have already gotten this question from previous scenarios!).

Hints: For the IDF Player lok over the OOB's and observe your advantages over the Arab League. Isolated the West Bank and then move to the Golan. Be careful not to destroy too many "civilian" units.

For the Arab Player, wipe out as many Settlements as possible to gain those VPs.