Briefing
THE NEXT WAR NATO vs. The Warsaw Pact - Sudden War Scenario Version 5.1 1. UNIT COLORS 1.1. WARSAW PACT Soviet-Red on Dark Red Polish-White on Red Czechoslovak-Black on Red Hungarian-Red on Red East German-Red on Black 1.2. NATO American-Red on Olive West German-White on Dark Gray British-Dark Blue on Brown Canadian-White on Brown French-Red on Dark Blue Italian-Tan on Grey Danish-White on Light Blue Belgian-White on Blue Luxembourg-Light Blue on Blue Dutch-Light Blue on Green Austrian-Cyan on White Liechtenstein-Grey on White 2. Background [Pentagon Report, Summary] "Soviet depots have shown considerable increase in activity of late. Many Soviet second line divisions are on stand-by readiness..." [The Kremlin, Excerpt] "Comrades, this is it. The Ministry expects much of us. The next May Day parade shall be held in Paris. The day after tomorrow is the first day of the next war..." This scenario examines what would have happened if the Soviets, perhaps anticipating the future collapse of their system, decided, in 1979, that their chances were better in a hot war than the Cold War. This might have been their last chance, before NATO re-equipped with much-improved tanks and aircraft, the Communists still held some power in Western parliaments, Brezhnev was in the Kremlin, and Carter was in the White House. This version presumes that the Soviets have chosen to launch a sudden strike with virtually no advance preparation, straight out of their barracks. As a result, they benefit from surprise effects on NATO at the cost of a victory point penalty. If NATO does not react fast enough, the makings of a "Pearl Harbor" type disaster are on hand. 3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS The scenario begins with hostilities started and will last 17 turns. As a result of the Warsaw Pact surprise attack, the NATO forces suffer both 25% shock and 25% air-shock penalties on turn 1. In addition, the Warsaw Pact's chances in the "Battle of the Atlantic" are enhanced. Correspondingly, the Warsaw Pact suffers a penalty of 50 victory points for making a surprise attack. All shock values return to normal on turn 2. Either side can authorize the use of nuclear weapons, at a penalty of 100 victory points. Once one side has authorized them, the other side will get them on the next turn without a victory point penalty. If both authorize on the same turn, neither is penalized. Similarly, the Warsaw Pact player (only) may authorize chemical warfare at a penalty of 50 victory points. Once he does, the NATO player gets chemical warfare on the next turn without a victory point penalty. The NATO player begins in possession of the victory hexes in Austria and Liechtenstein, but the value of them (130 VPs) has been deducted from his totals, to neutralize their value. Similarly, the victory hexes in Italy and France (410 VPs) have been deducted from the NATO player's totals, for balance purposes. The Warsaw Pact player (only) may invade Austria and Liechtenstein, by exercising his theater option, removing restriction zone 1. Once he does so, the 130 VP value of the victory hexes in those two states is added back to the NATO point totals. Neither side may remove restriction zone 2 (Switzerland and Yugoslavia). The bypass hexes around Geneve (1,78 to 1,90) are for use by the NATO player only. If the Warsaw Pact player tries to pass though them, the game will end with a normal victory calculation. There is a 10% chance that Denmark will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies any hex within 10 hexes of Kobenhaven. There is also an 80% chance that Denmark will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Kobenhaven itself. If Denmark surrenders, all Danish units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact receives 20 victory points. If it passes those two checks, the Danes will soldier on. There is a 20% chance that The Netherlands will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies a hex within 8 hexes of Amsterdam. There is also a 60% chance that they will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Amsterdam itself. If they surrender, all Dutch units are withdrawn and the Warsaw Pact receives 20 victory points. If both those checks are passed, the Dutch will soldier on. There is a 30% chance that Belgium will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Liege. If they surrender, all Belgian units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact player receives 20 victory points. If they pass that check the Belgians will soldier on. After Luxembourg (city) is occupied, the Luxembourg unit is withdrawn. There is a 15% chance that Austria will surrender as soon as the Warsaw Pact player exercises his option to invade it. There is also a 50% chance that Austria will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Wien. The same 50% chance occurs in succession for each of Linz, Salsburg, and Graz, as each of them is occupied. If Austria surrenders, all Austrian units are withdrawn and the Warsaw Pact player receives 20 victory points. If all those checks are passed, Austria will soldier on. There is a 50% chance that Italy will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Milano. If Italy surrenders, all Italian units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact receives 30 victory points. If that check is passed, Italy will soldier on. There is a 10% chance that Poland will refuse to participate. If so, no Polish units will be released. There is a 15% chance that East Germany will refuse to participate. If so, no East German units will be released. There is a 20% chance that Czechoslovakia will refuse to participate. If so, no Czech units will be released. There is a 30% chance that Hungary will refuse to participate. If so, no Hungarian units will be released. There is a 20% chance that France will refuse to allow its units to leave its borders. If triggered, no French units will be released. This restriction will be revoked if the WP gains a bridgehead over the Rhine or gets closer than 15 hexes to hex 9,67. There is a 50% chance that Italy will refuse to allow its units to leave its borders. If triggered, no Italian units will be released. This restriction is revoked if the WP invades Austria. Note that the Carabinieri are exempted from this restriction and begin the game released. Otherwise, all Polish, East German, Czech, Hungarian, French, and Italian units are released on turn one. However, if not so released, individual units will still be released by enemy attacks upon them. Whenever a NATO land unit occupies East Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig or Karl-Marx-Stadt, an incitement to revolt will take place in East Germany. (One incitement attempt per city). Similarly, whenever a NATO land unit occupies Praha or Plzen, an incitement to revolt will take place in Czechoslovakia. (One incitement attempt per city). Similarly, whenever a NATO land unit occupies Szczecin, Frankfurt a. d. Oder, Cottbus, or Gorlitz, an incitement to revolt will take place in Poland. (One incitement attempt per city). When an incitement to revolt takes place, there is a 50% chance that there will be an uprising of the country's population. If this chance fails and no uprising occurs, then other incitement attempts may still be made if the other trigger cities of the respective countries are occupied. Once one uprising takes place, no further incitements may take place in that country regardless of other trigger cities being occupied. Once an uprising has been triggered, there is a 50% chance that it will be put down by the Warsaw Pact forces. In this case, although the uprising was aborted, the Warsaw Pact still suffers a one turn 25% shock penalty. But if it is not put down, then the country successfully revolts. Then the Warsaw Pact suffers two turns of 25% shock penalty and the respective country's units are withdrawn (either East Germany, Poland, or Czechoslovakia). The NATO player receives 15 victory points for each abortive uprising and 50 victory points for each successful revolt. There is no award for an unsuccessful incitement to revolt. On turn one, the Battle of the Atlantic will take place. There is a 20% chance that the Warsaw Pact will win, canceling all further US and Canadian reinforcements. This also causes a permanent 10-point drop in NATO supply stockpiles. Failing that, there is a 35% chance that they will disrupt traffic for two weeks, delaying such reinforcements, and dropping supply stockpiles, for four turns. Failing that, there is a 25% chance that they will disrupt traffic for one week, delaying such reinforcements, and dropping supply stockpiles, for two turns. That leaves a 20% chance that NATO will clobber them and all reinforcements will arrive normally, with no drop in supply stockpiles. Note that the Battle of the Atlantic does not affect US units arriving by air, including all reforger units. Thus, its effects are limited to the US III Corps, the US Marine Division, the US turn-12 replacements, and the Canadian reinforcements. In addition, there is a 25% chance that the US Marine Division will be required elsewhere. If so, its arrival will be canceled, regardless of the results of the Battle of the Atlantic. If a Warsaw Pact unit occupies either Reforger hex (Kaiserslautern or Mannheim) before their respective Reforger reinforcements arrive, those Reforger reinforcements are canceled. If this happens for either hex, the 82nd Airborne will arrive two turns later. Otherwise, it arrives on turn 18. The Warsaw Pact receives 100 VPs if it gains a bridgehead over the Rhine. The award is only made once and is permanent. It is awarded upon WP capture of any of 14 bridgehead hexes on the West side of the Rhine. These hexes are Kolblenz, Bonn, Koln, Duisburg, Tilburg, and any of the nine hexes labeled "BRHD". The NATO player suffers widespread refugee problems throughout his territory on game-turn one. The NATO supply points in the four Berlin hexes are each destroyed upon Warsaw Pact occupation of the hex each point is in. Thus, NATO reoccupation of the hex will not revive the supply point. 4. PLAYER'S NOTES Although an operational game, players have a lot of strategic decisions to make in this scenario. The Warsaw Pact player must decide whether to invade Austria or not. Even if the action is restricted to Germany, where in Germany does he concentrate his thrusts? And then there are the decisions about chemical and nuclear weapons. The NATO player must decide whether to transfer large Italian forces to Germany and risk a Soviet blitzkrieg into Italy, or to wait for a Soviet thrust into Italy that may never come. While Denmark is probably a hopeless cause, Germany is very defendable. But what objectives should he fight to hold and which should he abandon? Should he dig-in a strong forward defense-line or try to trade space for time? When does he go on the offensive? And he, too, must decide about nuclear weapons. And impacting all these decisions are the political realities. Which allies will stand with you? Which will opt out? Finally, don't forget about those paratroopers! Both sides must secure their rear areas. But note that there are very few friendly supply points hidden in enemy territory. The only exceptions are for the Warsaw Pact on some of the coast-hexes of Denmark. One special note: All the Warsaw Pact rail-repair divisions should each be divided into three units. Each sub-unit will still have enough squads to guarantee repair of a rail hex. This is not true of NATO rail-repair regiments. Units ineligible for reconstitution: All fixed units, all replacement-type units, the Berlin Garrison, the Danish Bornholm Hm Df unit, and the Liechtenstein unit. NATO Replacement priorities are as follows: Very High: West German land and US air High: French land Normal: US land, West German reserve, West German naval, West German air, UK, French air, and Italian Low: Canadian, Belgian, and Dutch Very Low: Dane, Luxembourg, and Austrian None: Berlin Garrison, Dane Hm Df, and Liechtenstein. Soviet first-line divisions have Very High priority, Soviet Paratroop/Marine units have High priority, and all other Warsaw Pact units have Normal priority. Note: Soviet first-line divisions are the stronger divisions that start on the map or arrive as reinforcements on turn one. 5. DESIGNER'S NOTES This scenario is a direct adaptation of SPI's massive 1978 wargame, "The Next War". The map, OOB, TOE, objective values, replacements, and events have all been adapted as close as possible from that game, and the information it contained. Of course, where I've had to, I've used other information. The map of that game was at a scale of 14km/hex. I've selected the 15km/hex environment in TOAW and applied a 7% movement adjustment to correct for the difference. Player's should note that a significant number of units are "replacement" units only. They exist only to be disbanded into the replacement tracks upon arrival. This is a trick that permits the scenario to have different replacement rates over the course of its length for selected equipment only. Especially significant is the large, one-time dump of US replacement equipment that occurs on turn 12 (depending upon the results of the "Battle of the Atlantic"). Thus, the replacement tracks themselves don't fully reflect the level of replacements scheduled. 6. PRIMARY REFERENCE "The Next War" (wargame), James F. Dunnigan, Mark Herman, Redmond A. Simonsen, et al., Simulations Publications, Inc., 1978. The BMP photo is of an M60A3 crossing a stream. I found it on a Russian web-site. Bob Cross

Briefing

THE NEXT WAR

NATO vs. The Warsaw Pact - Sudden War Scenario

Version 5.1

1. UNIT COLORS

1.1. WARSAW PACT

Soviet-Red on Dark Red
Polish-White on Red
Czechoslovak-Black on Red
Hungarian-Red on Red
East German-Red on Black

1.2. NATO

American-Red on Olive
West German-White on Dark Gray
British-Dark Blue on Brown
Canadian-White on Brown
French-Red on Dark Blue
Italian-Tan on Grey
Danish-White on Light Blue
Belgian-White on Blue
Luxembourg-Light Blue on Blue
Dutch-Light Blue on Green
Austrian-Cyan on White
Liechtenstein-Grey on White

2. Background

[Pentagon Report, Summary] "Soviet depots have shown considerable increase in activity of late. Many Soviet second line divisions are on stand-by readiness..."

[The Kremlin, Excerpt] "Comrades, this is it. The Ministry expects much of us. The next May Day parade shall be held in Paris. The day after tomorrow is the first day of the next war..."

This scenario examines what would have happened if the Soviets, perhaps anticipating the future collapse of their system, decided, in 1979, that their chances were better in a hot war than the Cold War.

This might have been their last chance, before NATO re-equipped with much-improved tanks and aircraft, the Communists still held some power in Western parliaments, Brezhnev was in the Kremlin, and Carter was in the White House.

This version presumes that the Soviets have chosen to launch a sudden strike with virtually no advance preparation, straight out of their barracks. As a result, they benefit from surprise effects on NATO at the cost of a victory point penalty. If NATO does not react fast enough, the makings of a "Pearl Harbor" type disaster are on hand.

3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

The scenario begins with hostilities started and will last 17 turns.
As a result of the Warsaw Pact surprise attack, the NATO forces suffer both 25% shock and 25% air-shock penalties on turn 1. In addition, the Warsaw Pact's chances in the "Battle of the Atlantic" are enhanced. Correspondingly, the Warsaw Pact suffers a penalty of 50 victory points for making a surprise attack. All shock values return to normal on turn 2.
Either side can authorize the use of nuclear weapons, at a penalty of 100 victory points. Once one side has authorized them, the other side will get them on the next turn without a victory point penalty. If both authorize on the same turn, neither is penalized.
Similarly, the Warsaw Pact player (only) may authorize chemical warfare at a penalty of 50 victory points. Once he does, the NATO player gets chemical warfare on the next turn without a victory point penalty.
The NATO player begins in possession of the victory hexes in Austria and Liechtenstein, but the value of them (130 VPs) has been deducted from his totals, to neutralize their value.
Similarly, the victory hexes in Italy and France (410 VPs) have been deducted from the NATO player's totals, for balance purposes.
The Warsaw Pact player (only) may invade Austria and Liechtenstein, by exercising his theater option, removing restriction zone 1. Once he does so, the 130 VP value of the victory hexes in those two states is added back to the NATO point totals. Neither side may remove restriction zone 2 (Switzerland and Yugoslavia).
The bypass hexes around Geneve (1,78 to 1,90) are for use by the NATO player only. If the Warsaw Pact player tries to pass though them, the game will end with a normal victory calculation.
There is a 10% chance that Denmark will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies any hex within 10 hexes of Kobenhaven. There is also an 80% chance that Denmark will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Kobenhaven itself. If Denmark surrenders, all Danish units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact receives 20 victory points. If it passes those two checks, the Danes will soldier on.
There is a 20% chance that The Netherlands will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies a hex within 8 hexes of Amsterdam. There is also a 60% chance that they will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Amsterdam itself. If they surrender, all Dutch units are withdrawn and the Warsaw Pact receives 20 victory points. If both those checks are passed, the Dutch will soldier on.
There is a 30% chance that Belgium will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Liege. If they surrender, all Belgian units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact player receives 20 victory points. If they pass that check the Belgians will soldier on.
After Luxembourg (city) is occupied, the Luxembourg unit is withdrawn.
There is a 15% chance that Austria will surrender as soon as the Warsaw Pact player exercises his option to invade it. There is also a 50% chance that Austria will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Wien. The same 50% chance occurs in succession for each of Linz, Salsburg, and Graz, as each of them is occupied. If Austria surrenders, all Austrian units are withdrawn and the Warsaw Pact player receives 20 victory points. If all those checks are passed, Austria will soldier on.
There is a 50% chance that Italy will surrender after a Warsaw Pact unit occupies Milano. If Italy surrenders, all Italian units are withdrawn, and the Warsaw Pact receives 30 victory points. If that check is passed, Italy will soldier on.
There is a 10% chance that Poland will refuse to participate. If so, no Polish units will be released.
There is a 15% chance that East Germany will refuse to participate. If so, no East German units will be released.
There is a 20% chance that Czechoslovakia will refuse to participate. If so, no Czech units will be released.
There is a 30% chance that Hungary will refuse to participate. If so, no Hungarian units will be released.
There is a 20% chance that France will refuse to allow its units to leave its borders. If triggered, no French units will be released. This restriction will be revoked if the WP gains a bridgehead over the Rhine or gets closer than 15 hexes to hex 9,67.
There is a 50% chance that Italy will refuse to allow its units to leave its borders. If triggered, no Italian units will be released. This restriction is revoked if the WP invades Austria. Note that the Carabinieri are exempted from this restriction and begin the game released.
Otherwise, all Polish, East German, Czech, Hungarian, French, and Italian units are released on turn one. However, if not so released, individual units will still be released by enemy attacks upon them.
Whenever a NATO land unit occupies East Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig or Karl-Marx-Stadt, an incitement to revolt will take place in East Germany. (One incitement attempt per city).
Similarly, whenever a NATO land unit occupies Praha or Plzen, an incitement to revolt will take place in Czechoslovakia. (One incitement attempt per city).
Similarly, whenever a NATO land unit occupies Szczecin, Frankfurt a. d. Oder, Cottbus, or Gorlitz, an incitement to revolt will take place in Poland. (One incitement attempt per city).
When an incitement to revolt takes place, there is a 50% chance that there will be an uprising of the country's population. If this chance fails and no uprising occurs, then other incitement attempts may still be made if the other trigger cities of the respective countries are occupied.
Once one uprising takes place, no further incitements may take place in that country regardless of other trigger cities being occupied. Once an uprising has been triggered, there is a 50% chance that it will be put down by the Warsaw Pact forces. In this case, although the uprising was aborted, the Warsaw Pact still suffers a one turn 25% shock penalty. But if it is not put down, then the country successfully revolts. Then the Warsaw Pact suffers two turns of 25% shock penalty and the respective country's units are withdrawn (either East Germany, Poland, or Czechoslovakia).
The NATO player receives 15 victory points for each abortive uprising and 50 victory points for each successful revolt. There is no award for an unsuccessful incitement to revolt.
On turn one, the Battle of the Atlantic will take place. There is a 20% chance that the Warsaw Pact will win, canceling all further US and Canadian reinforcements. This also causes a permanent 10-point drop in NATO supply stockpiles. Failing that, there is a 35% chance that they will disrupt traffic for two weeks, delaying such reinforcements, and dropping supply stockpiles, for four turns. Failing that, there is a 25% chance that they will disrupt traffic for one week, delaying such reinforcements, and dropping supply stockpiles, for two turns. That leaves a 20% chance that NATO will clobber them and all reinforcements will arrive normally, with no drop in supply stockpiles.
Note that the Battle of the Atlantic does not affect US units arriving by air, including all reforger units. Thus, its effects are limited to the US III Corps, the US Marine Division, the US turn-12 replacements, and the Canadian reinforcements. In addition, there is a 25% chance that the US Marine Division will be required elsewhere. If so, its arrival will be canceled, regardless of the results of the Battle of the Atlantic.
If a Warsaw Pact unit occupies either Reforger hex (Kaiserslautern or Mannheim) before their respective Reforger reinforcements arrive, those Reforger reinforcements are canceled. If this happens for either hex, the 82nd Airborne will arrive two turns later. Otherwise, it arrives on turn 18.
The Warsaw Pact receives 100 VPs if it gains a bridgehead over the Rhine. The award is only made once and is permanent. It is awarded upon WP capture of any of 14 bridgehead hexes on the West side of the Rhine. These hexes are Kolblenz, Bonn, Koln, Duisburg, Tilburg, and any of the nine hexes labeled "BRHD".
The NATO player suffers widespread refugee problems throughout his territory on game-turn one.
The NATO supply points in the four Berlin hexes are each destroyed upon Warsaw Pact occupation of the hex each point is in. Thus, NATO reoccupation of the hex will not revive the supply point.

4. PLAYER'S NOTES

Although an operational game, players have a lot of strategic decisions to make in this scenario.

The Warsaw Pact player must decide whether to invade Austria or not. Even if the action is restricted to Germany, where in Germany does he concentrate his thrusts? And then there are the decisions about chemical and nuclear weapons.

The NATO player must decide whether to transfer large Italian forces to Germany and risk a Soviet blitzkrieg into Italy, or to wait for a Soviet thrust into Italy that may never come. While Denmark is probably a hopeless cause, Germany is very defendable. But what objectives should he fight to hold and which should he abandon? Should he dig-in a strong forward defense-line or try to trade space for time? When does he go on the offensive? And he, too, must decide about nuclear weapons.

And impacting all these decisions are the political realities. Which allies will stand with you? Which will opt out?

Finally, don't forget about those paratroopers! Both sides must secure their rear areas. But note that there are very few friendly supply points hidden in enemy territory. The only exceptions are for the Warsaw Pact on some of the coast-hexes of Denmark.

One special note: All the Warsaw Pact rail-repair divisions should each be divided into three units. Each sub-unit will still have enough squads to guarantee repair of a rail hex. This is not true of NATO rail-repair regiments.

Units ineligible for reconstitution:
All fixed units, all replacement-type units, the Berlin Garrison, the Danish Bornholm Hm Df unit, and the Liechtenstein unit.

NATO Replacement priorities are as follows:

Very High: West German land and US air
High: French land
Normal: US land, West German reserve, West German naval, West German air, UK, French air, and Italian
Low: Canadian, Belgian, and Dutch
Very Low: Dane, Luxembourg, and Austrian
None: Berlin Garrison, Dane Hm Df, and Liechtenstein.

Soviet first-line divisions have Very High priority, Soviet Paratroop/Marine units have High priority, and all other Warsaw Pact units have Normal priority. Note: Soviet first-line divisions are the stronger divisions that start on the map or arrive as reinforcements on turn one.

5. DESIGNER'S NOTES

This scenario is a direct adaptation of SPI's massive 1978 wargame, "The Next War". The map, OOB, TOE, objective values, replacements, and events have all been adapted as close as possible from that game, and the information it contained. Of course, where I've had to, I've used other information.

The map of that game was at a scale of 14km/hex. I've selected the 15km/hex environment in TOAW and applied a 7% movement adjustment to correct for the difference.

Player's should note that a significant number of units are "replacement" units only. They exist only to be disbanded into the replacement tracks upon arrival. This is a trick that permits the scenario to have different replacement rates over the course of its length for selected equipment only. Especially significant is the large, one-time dump of US replacement equipment that occurs on turn 12 (depending upon the results of the "Battle of the Atlantic"). Thus, the replacement tracks themselves don't fully reflect the level of replacements scheduled.

6. PRIMARY REFERENCE

"The Next War" (wargame), James F. Dunnigan, Mark Herman, Redmond A. Simonsen, et al., Simulations Publications, Inc., 1978.

The BMP photo is of an M60A3 crossing a stream. I found it on a Russian web-site.

Bob Cross