Toaw Scenario: Indo-Pakistan War 2002

India & Pakistan,
September 15, 2002,

India army of 188 units opposed to Pakistan army of 155 units
for a battle of complexity 0.97 at Brigade(X) level
on a 20 Km/Hex map
for 21 turns of Full Day each.

by Arif Hasan submited on 21-11-2002

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Briefing
INDO-PAKISTAN WAR (SEPTEMBER 2002) Game Scale: 20 Km/Hex Game Length: 21 Turns Climate: Equatorial Unit Size: Divisions, Brigades, Regiments, Battalions Indian Forces: White on Brown Pakistani Forces: Black on Green BACKGROUND The Indo-Pakistan conflict has continued ever since the inception of Pakistan in 1947. The two countries have fought three full-scale wars, in 1947-48, 1965 and 1971. THE KASHMIR ISSUE The Kashmir issue is the primary "bone of contention" between India and Pakistan. Pakistan claims the Indian occupied part on the grounds of ethnic and religious reasons and mainly because the plebiscite promised to the Kashmiri people about their choice to join India or Pakistan was never held by the Indians. Things were quiet for a few years after the 1965 war but the Indian government resorted to massive riggings in the 1987 state elections in Kashmir. This caused an outburst of anger in the Kashmiris who revolted against the Indian misrule. What started out as a series of small local disturbances soon grew into a popular movement for the complete independence of Kashmir from India. The Afghan war was closing during this time and many of the freedom fighters moved over to Kashmir to fight for their liberation. India reacted clumsily to this revolt and imposed harsh emergency measures in the territory. They sent in hundreds of thousands of regular and paramilitary troops to root out the freedom fighters and crush the mujahideen. But things continued to go from bad to worse in the years following 1987. Matters of torture, mass killings, rape and plunder became the norm in Kashmir and the Indian security forces indulged in scores of incidents of abuse of human rights in Kashmir. These have been documented on numerous occasions by many human rights watch organizations like "Amnesty International". BACKDROP TO CURRENT CRISIS In the meantime, the Mujahideen became more aggressive and they embarked in ever more daring attacks on the occupying Indian security forces. In October 2001, they attacked the parliament in Srinagar and killed over 47 people. In December 2001, there was a similar attack on the Indian Parliament and it resulted in over 14 deaths. The BJP government came under extreme pressure and they felt they had to do something to counter these attacks. Prime Minister Vajpayee declared it "a heinous act of Terrorism" and said that India reserved the right to decide the terms and conditions for the response. Indians have always blamed Pakistan for the moral and military support it gives to the freedom movement in Indian occupied Kashmir and a decision was made to possibly move against Pakistan militarily. MILITARY BUILD UP BY BOTH SIDES A huge buildup of military forces began on the Indian side, the first one on a scale comparable to the one during the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. The Pakistan army also matched the Indian deployment with their own. The international community urged restraint and advocated peace to both sides. REAL REASON FOR INDIAN MOBILIZATION The Indians saw a "Golden Opportunity" to have Pakistan declared a terrorist state and to prompt the international community, especially the United States, to force Pakistan to stop supporting the freedom movement in Kashmir. The Indians were clearly unpleased over President Musharraf's diplomatic coup in October 2001, when he had supported the U.S led coalition against the "Taliban and Al-Qaida" regime in Afghanistan. This action by the Pakistan President had changed Pakistan's "pariah status" to that of a "key ally" of the west. The positive change for Pakistan could not be "stomached" by India. They demanded that Pakistan should stop Cross-Border terrorism and more importantly, he should hand over some 20 suspects to the Indian government. Cross-Border terrorism is a term that India prefers to use in Kashmir (but Pakistan refuses to acknowledge) as it does not recognize the line of control as an International border). On January 12, 2002, President Musharraf, under extreme pressure from the world community, gave a speech to curb sectarianism and terrorism in Pakistan. But his words fell well short of Indian expectations as he plainly refused to agree to the Indian demand to hand over 20 suspects and completely sidestepped the issue of "Cross-Border terrorism". As a result, the Indians did not withdraw their formations to the pre-buildup peacetime positions and forced Pakistan to keep its armies mobilized on the borders. Things were quiet for a few months but then there was another huge attack on an army camp near Jammu in the middle of May 2002. Over 34 Indian soldiers and their families were killed in the attack. THE BJP'S CHOICE The choice in front of the BJP government was to either do something concrete or forever resign to the fact that India could only "talk" and never "act". They had just lost the recent inteim polls and could not afford to look like doves during the crisis. THE SCENARIO (SEPT 15 - OCT 5) The scenario explores the possibility that Diplomacy failed by the end of August and the Indians launched a major attack to capture Azad Kashmir by mid-September 2002. OPPOSING STRATEGIES Attacking in Azad Kashmir, Indians would deploy defensively all across the remaining 1800 Km international border. This would be to hope to get a situation in which the fighting remained confined to Kashmir (as in the 1947-1949 war). It would enable them to enjoy some degree of local superiority over the Pakistanis. The Hajipir pass area in Azad Kashmir is expected to come under attack (like in 1965) but the mountainous terrain in Azad Kashmir still poses a logistical nightmare for any attacker. Pakistan, on the other hand, has adopted the doctrine of "Riposte", meaning simultaneous "Offense and Defence". Pakistan could possibly target the Indians in the Chambh sectors (of occupied Kashmir) and the Indian Punjab near Bikaner and Jullandhar. Though the Pakistani capability for a sustained offensive is limited, the threat to Indian Punjab (where the Khalistan movement is lying dormant) would definitely force the Indians to tie down a large number of their forces in the region defensively. As a reply to the Punjab threat, the Indians have developed a massive offensive capability in the Rajasthan desert near Pokharan and Jodhpur. An offensive from this sector has the dual objectives of cutting Pakistan into two and effectively sever the North South communications in Pakistan by striking and capturing RahimYar Khan (and possibly Bahawalpur) at the same time. SPECIAL EVENTS (Pakistan) Pakistan trained commandos and Mujahideen will start operating behind Indian lines from the beginning of the scenario. The Pakistan government will authorize Nuclear weapon use by the end of the first week of fighting. There will be a chance to use 5 devices per turn (until the end of the game). SPECIAL EVENTS(India) India has a declared policy of no first use of Nuclear weapons and will only use Nukes in case they are attacked by Pakistan. Indians has 7 nuclear attacks per turn (until the game ends). CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR USE International pressure on both the sides will increase tremendously and the game would end quickly if any nukes are used in the war. No victory point change would be effected in case of nuclear release, though, by either party. Both the sides would end up with a loss.

Briefing

INDO-PAKISTAN WAR (SEPTEMBER 2002)

Game Scale:
20 Km/Hex

Game Length:
21 Turns

Climate:
Equatorial

Unit Size:
Divisions, Brigades, Regiments, Battalions

Indian Forces:
White on Brown

Pakistani Forces:
Black on Green

BACKGROUND
The Indo-Pakistan conflict has continued ever since the inception of Pakistan in 1947. The two countries have fought three full-scale wars, in 1947-48, 1965 and 1971.

THE KASHMIR ISSUE
The Kashmir issue is the primary "bone of contention" between India and Pakistan. Pakistan claims the Indian occupied part on the grounds of ethnic and religious reasons and mainly because the plebiscite promised to the Kashmiri people about their choice to join India or Pakistan was never held by the Indians. Things were quiet for a few years after the 1965 war but the Indian government resorted to massive riggings in the 1987 state elections in Kashmir. This caused an outburst of anger in the Kashmiris who revolted against the Indian misrule. What started out as a series of small local disturbances soon grew into a popular movement for the complete independence of Kashmir from India. The Afghan war was closing during this time and many of the freedom fighters moved over to Kashmir to fight for their liberation. India reacted clumsily to this revolt and imposed harsh emergency measures in the territory. They sent in hundreds of thousands of regular and paramilitary troops to root out the freedom fighters and crush the mujahideen. But things continued to go from bad to worse in the years following 1987. Matters of torture, mass killings, rape and plunder became the norm in Kashmir and the Indian security forces indulged in scores of incidents of abuse of human rights in Kashmir. These have been documented on numerous occasions by many human rights watch organizations like "Amnesty International".

BACKDROP TO CURRENT CRISIS
In the meantime, the Mujahideen became more aggressive and they embarked in ever more daring attacks on the occupying Indian security forces. In October 2001, they attacked the parliament in Srinagar and killed over 47 people. In December 2001, there was a similar attack on the Indian Parliament and it resulted in over 14 deaths. The BJP government came under extreme pressure and they felt they had to do something to counter these attacks. Prime Minister Vajpayee declared it "a heinous act of Terrorism" and said that India reserved the right to decide the terms and conditions for the response. Indians have always blamed Pakistan for the moral and military support it gives to the freedom movement in Indian occupied Kashmir and a decision was made to possibly move against Pakistan militarily.

MILITARY BUILD UP BY BOTH SIDES
A huge buildup of military forces began on the Indian side, the first one on a scale comparable to the one during the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. The Pakistan army also matched the Indian deployment with their own. The international community urged restraint and advocated peace to both sides.

REAL REASON FOR INDIAN MOBILIZATION
The Indians saw a "Golden Opportunity" to have Pakistan declared a terrorist state and to prompt the international community, especially the United States, to force Pakistan to stop supporting the freedom movement in Kashmir. The Indians were clearly unpleased over President Musharraf's diplomatic coup in October 2001, when he had supported the U.S led coalition against the "Taliban and Al-Qaida" regime in Afghanistan. This action by the Pakistan President had changed Pakistan's "pariah status" to that of a "key ally" of the west. The positive change for Pakistan could not be "stomached" by India. They demanded that Pakistan should stop Cross-Border terrorism and more importantly, he should hand over some 20 suspects to the Indian government. Cross-Border terrorism is a term that India prefers to use in Kashmir (but Pakistan refuses to acknowledge) as it does not recognize the line of control as an International border).

On January 12, 2002, President Musharraf, under extreme pressure from the world community, gave a speech to curb sectarianism and terrorism in Pakistan. But his words fell well short of Indian expectations as he plainly refused to agree to the Indian demand to hand over 20 suspects and completely sidestepped the issue of "Cross-Border terrorism". As a result, the Indians did not withdraw their formations to the pre-buildup peacetime positions and forced Pakistan to keep its armies mobilized on the borders.

Things were quiet for a few months but then there was another huge attack on an army camp near Jammu in the middle of May 2002. Over 34 Indian soldiers and their families were killed in the attack.

THE BJP'S CHOICE
The choice in front of the BJP government was to either do something concrete or forever resign to the fact that India could only "talk" and never "act". They had just lost the recent inteim polls and could not afford to look like doves during the crisis.

THE SCENARIO (SEPT 15 - OCT 5)
The scenario explores the possibility that Diplomacy failed by the end of August and the Indians launched a major attack to capture Azad Kashmir by mid-September 2002.

OPPOSING STRATEGIES
Attacking in Azad Kashmir, Indians would deploy defensively all across the remaining 1800 Km international border. This would be to hope to get a situation in which the fighting remained confined to Kashmir (as in the 1947-1949 war). It would enable them to enjoy some degree of local superiority over the Pakistanis. The Hajipir pass area in Azad Kashmir is expected to come under attack (like in 1965) but the mountainous terrain in Azad Kashmir still poses a logistical nightmare for any attacker.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has adopted the doctrine of "Riposte", meaning simultaneous "Offense and Defence". Pakistan could possibly target the Indians in the Chambh sectors (of occupied Kashmir) and the Indian Punjab near Bikaner and Jullandhar.

Though the Pakistani capability for a sustained offensive is limited, the threat to Indian Punjab (where the Khalistan movement is lying dormant) would definitely force the Indians to tie down a large number of their forces in the region defensively.

As a reply to the Punjab threat, the Indians have developed a massive offensive capability in the Rajasthan desert near Pokharan and Jodhpur. An offensive from this sector has the dual objectives of cutting Pakistan into two and effectively sever the North South communications in Pakistan by striking and capturing RahimYar Khan (and possibly Bahawalpur) at the same time.

SPECIAL EVENTS (Pakistan)
Pakistan trained commandos and Mujahideen will start operating behind Indian lines from the beginning of the scenario. The Pakistan government will authorize Nuclear weapon use by the end of the first week of fighting. There will be a chance to use 5 devices per turn (until the end of the game).

SPECIAL EVENTS(India)
India has a declared policy of no first use of Nuclear weapons and will only use Nukes in case they are attacked by Pakistan. Indians has 7 nuclear attacks per turn (until the game ends).

CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR USE
International pressure on both the sides will increase tremendously and the game would end quickly if any nukes are used in the war. No victory point change would be effected in case of nuclear release, though, by either party. Both the sides would end up with a loss.