Toaw Scenario: Russo-China 2000

Asia,
August 01, 2000,

Russia army of 128 units opposed to China army of 122 units
for a battle of complexity 0.85 at Division(XX) level
on a 50 Km/Hex map
for 20 turns of Half Week each.

by John Schettler submited on 18-12-2002

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Briefing
RUSSO-CHINA WAR THE EAST IS RED Hypothetical outbreak of major Asian conflict between Russia & China in the year 2000. Date: August 2000 Location: Central & Eastern Asia Map scale: 50km per hex Time scale: Half Week Turns Unit Scale: Division Length: 20 Turns UNIT COLORS SOVIET UNION Army - White on Red Special & Support Forces - Black on Red Air Force -Black on Red RUSSIAN ALLIES Turkestan - Gold on Burgundy Kazakhstan - Black on Burgundy Uzbekistan - Brown on Red Mongolian Corps - Red on White Kyrgystan - Lt Yellow on Gray CHINA Security Militia - Blue on Yellow Regular Army - Lt. Yellow on Yellow Mongolian Freedon Fighters - Lt Green on Tan North Korea - White on Brown Air Force - Blue & Yellow on Yellow SIGNIFICANT EVENTS * Chance of North Korean intervention. * Chance of nuclear/chemical incident. * Chance of major storms. * Chance of US intervention. BACKGROUND "The provacative violations of the Russian-Chinese border and their intervention on Russian territory attest to a new adventuristic policy adopted by the Chinese leadership. Their aim is to decide disputed questions by force. Thus our border forces have at their disposal all that is necessary to fulfill their sacred duty in an exemplary way. We will demonstrate our level of decisiveness by increasing the military preparedness of the troops in order to guarantee the inviolability of the Far Eastern border of our beloved Motherland." - I.K. Bokan, Krasnoznammenyi Border District The long brewing rivalry between Russia and China has only been exacerbated by the breakup of the Soviet Union and fall of the Communist regime in Russia. Now, more than ever, Russia must keep a guarded watch on her long border with China to protect the resource rich Siberian region from the potential, (some feel inevitable) expansion of the world's most populous country. The collapse of Soviet communism has had repercussions that have riddled the Russian military with problems. Budgets have been cut, resources are scarce, production of new arms and equipment are all in jeopardy. Add to this the loss of morale, defections in the ranks, and general lapse of security for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and a dangerous situation presents itself should war ever erupt on the Asian continent. Though the Russian leadership may still be long on resolve, as evidenced by the opening quotation, it will be decidedly short on equipment and staying power through many levels of its once indomitable land army should that conflict occur. (To simulate this Russian divisions are largely "Category B" type units in this scenario, and do not have their full establishment strength at the outset of the war.) For its part, China has embarked on a steady effort to upgrade and modernize its military by improving designs and incorporating technology obtained from the West. While still less technically sophisticated than its Russian counterpart, China's military forces in the year 2000 will represent a far more significant threat to Russia's borders than ever before. Some historians feel that the 21st century will eventually be dominated by China as this vast nation begins to exert more and more influence over its surrounding neighbors. After being forced to accept borders dictated by a much stronger Soviet union at the conclusion of WWII, China is only now beginning to reclaim "lost territories" it has coveted for generations. In the last half of the 20th century China has fought in Korea, and pressured all its borders to the point of shooting incidents with Vietnam, Laos, India, Russia, and a long steeped desire to reclaim Taiwan. The return of Hong Kong has convinced China that it can successfully re-absorb former provinces that have since become westernized without compromising a Communist political orientation. How soon will it be before China decides to settle the long brewing border conflicts with its weaker Russian neighbor? In this scenario you can examine the possible outcome of a major war in Asia when China presses its claims on Mongolia--a wayward sister province that was "seduced" by the Russians in the mid-60s and must now be brought back into proper orientation with the People's Republic of China. But behind this thin political facade, the real struggle is being waged for control of vast territories in eastern Asia, and their limitless natural resources. The winding waters of the Amur river will again become a fault line for hostility, only this time the conflict stretches into central Asia. As before, the Russians are not wholly Unprepared. Their intelligence network has reported on increasing Chinese support for dissident factions in Mongolia and infiltration along the long border and Amur river island "claims jumping" has been on the rise. Satellite reconnaissance has also noted a subtle, but ominous shift of more Chinese mechanized and tank formations into Manchuria, and a "fleshing out" of all Chinese infantry divisions in the region. Alarmed by these ominous signs, Russian ambassadors shuttle to their former provinces of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to lobby support. The Russian generals are ordered to prepare for the worst when uprisings in several regions of Mongolia threaten to topple the government there and move Mongolia into the Chinese camp. As in all Russian military thinking, the old maxim of "the best defense is a good offense" will apply. But can they sustain a concerted attack in the face of China's newly modernized army? Russian front line units are quietly alerted and reservists are recalled from civilian duty. The Russian war machine, less competent but still a formidable force, musters divisions from seven of their eight military districts and prepares to confront China on more or less equal terms for the first time in over half a century. But the vaunted Red Army is far past its prime as the conflict begins--with an uncertain outcome that will decide who rules the Asian continent from this point on. Scenario Design: John Schettler

Briefing

RUSSO-CHINA WAR
THE EAST IS RED
Hypothetical outbreak of major Asian conflict between Russia & China in the year 2000.

Date: August 2000
Location: Central & Eastern Asia
Map scale: 50km per hex
Time scale: Half Week Turns
Unit Scale: Division
Length: 20 Turns

UNIT COLORS

SOVIET UNION
Army - White on Red
Special & Support Forces - Black on Red
Air Force -Black on Red

RUSSIAN ALLIES
Turkestan - Gold on Burgundy
Kazakhstan - Black on Burgundy
Uzbekistan - Brown on Red
Mongolian Corps - Red on White
Kyrgystan - Lt Yellow on Gray

CHINA
Security Militia - Blue on Yellow
Regular Army - Lt. Yellow on Yellow
Mongolian Freedon Fighters - Lt Green on Tan
North Korea - White on Brown
Air Force - Blue & Yellow on Yellow

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

* Chance of North Korean intervention.
* Chance of nuclear/chemical incident.
* Chance of major storms.
* Chance of US intervention.

BACKGROUND

"The provacative violations of the Russian-Chinese border and their intervention on Russian territory attest to a new adventuristic policy adopted by the Chinese leadership. Their aim is to decide disputed questions by force. Thus our border forces have at their disposal all that is necessary to fulfill their sacred duty in an exemplary way. We will demonstrate our level of decisiveness by increasing the military preparedness of the troops in order to guarantee the inviolability of the Far Eastern border of our beloved Motherland."
- I.K. Bokan, Krasnoznammenyi Border District

The long brewing rivalry between Russia and China has only been exacerbated by the breakup of the Soviet Union and fall of the Communist regime in Russia. Now, more than ever, Russia must keep a guarded watch on her long border with China to protect the resource rich Siberian region from the potential, (some feel inevitable) expansion of the world's most populous country.

The collapse of Soviet communism has had repercussions that have riddled the Russian military with problems. Budgets have been cut, resources are scarce, production of new arms and equipment are all in jeopardy. Add to this the loss of morale, defections in the ranks, and general lapse of security for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and a dangerous situation presents itself should war ever erupt on the Asian continent. Though the Russian leadership may still be long on resolve, as evidenced by the opening quotation, it will be decidedly short on equipment and staying power through many levels of its once indomitable land army should that conflict occur. (To simulate this Russian divisions are largely "Category B" type units in this scenario, and do not have their full establishment strength at the outset of the war.)

For its part, China has embarked on a steady effort to upgrade and modernize its military by improving designs and incorporating technology obtained from the West. While still less technically sophisticated than its Russian counterpart, China's military forces in the year 2000 will represent a far more significant threat to Russia's borders than ever before.

Some historians feel that the 21st century will eventually be dominated by China as this vast nation begins to exert more and more influence over its surrounding neighbors. After being forced to accept borders dictated by a much stronger Soviet union at the conclusion of WWII, China is only now beginning to reclaim "lost territories" it has coveted for generations. In the last half of the 20th century China has fought in Korea, and pressured all its borders to the point of shooting incidents with Vietnam, Laos, India, Russia, and a long steeped desire to reclaim Taiwan. The return of Hong Kong has convinced China that it can successfully re-absorb former provinces that have since become westernized without compromising a Communist political orientation. How soon will it be before China decides to settle the long brewing border conflicts with its weaker Russian neighbor?

In this scenario you can examine the possible outcome of a major war in Asia when China presses its claims on Mongolia--a wayward sister province that was "seduced" by the Russians in the mid-60s and must now be brought back into proper orientation with the People's Republic of China. But behind this thin political facade, the real struggle is being waged for control of vast territories in eastern Asia, and their limitless natural resources. The winding waters of the Amur river will again become a fault line for hostility, only this time the conflict stretches into central Asia.

As before, the Russians are not wholly Unprepared. Their intelligence network has reported on increasing Chinese support for dissident factions in Mongolia and infiltration along the long border and Amur river island "claims jumping" has been on the rise. Satellite reconnaissance has also noted a subtle, but ominous shift of more Chinese mechanized and tank formations into Manchuria, and a "fleshing out" of all Chinese infantry divisions in the region. Alarmed by these ominous signs, Russian ambassadors shuttle to their former provinces of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to lobby support.

The Russian generals are ordered to prepare for the worst when uprisings in several regions of Mongolia threaten to topple the government there and move Mongolia into the Chinese camp. As in all Russian military thinking, the old maxim of "the best defense is a good offense" will apply. But can they sustain a concerted attack in the face of China's newly modernized army?

Russian front line units are quietly alerted and reservists are recalled from civilian duty. The Russian war machine, less competent but still a formidable force, musters divisions from seven of their eight military districts and prepares to confront China on more or less equal terms for the first time in over half a century. But the vaunted Red Army is far past its prime as the conflict begins--with an uncertain outcome that will decide who rules the Asian continent from this point on.

Scenario Design: John Schettler