Taiwan 2005

In November 2004, Taiwan held a referendum to begin negotiations with the People's Republic of China concerning independence of the island. China, needless to say, objected to the whole idea, but, with the US guaranteeing Taiwanese soverignty, there was very little they could do as an open confrontation with the US would be disasterous to their position.

However, by July 2005, things had changed. Deployments in Iraq, a resurgent North Korea, problems in Central America, and missions in Afghanistan had stretched US forces to their limit. The US Navy felt it when a major engineering casualty aboard USS Ronald Regan meant that, for the first time since the referendum, no available US ship was within a week's sailing of the Taiwan Strait.

The Chinese military, sensing their chance, convinced the Central Committee that a quick strike could be mounted, which would overwhelm Taiwanese defences before the United States could intervene. The Chinese government could then present their fait accompli to the world, returning their rebellious province to the fold, and demonstrating to the world the worth of US guarantees.

However, even the secretive Chinese could not hide all their preparations, over the several weeks required for them. The US noted the gathering of shipping, the redeployment of troops, and the collection of aircraft. However, the cupboard was nearly bare -- almost all available units were either already deployed or recovering from a viscious operations tempo. Still, the US government realized that not supporting Taiwan would throw the rest of their alliances into jepoardy, and so something had to be done.

Warning orders and orders to deploy went out to what units they had left. A couple of brigades of the 82nd Airborne were ordered to deploy immediately, with every available fighter unit that could be scraped up. An MEU, fresh from qualification, was ordered to sail for Taiwan. And, finally, the 3rd ACR and 1st Cav Division, preparing to sail to Korea, were ordered to sail for Taiwan, instead, with the USS Enterprise and her battlegroup in support. USN ships could not be redeployed from Korea, but ships on the US West Coast were ordered to make for Okinawa, then to the Taiwan Strait, and begin operations there.

China saw these preparations, but, to turn back now would be to lose face. It would take a week for the United States to deploy substantial ground and naval reinforcements to the region. That one week would be their window of opportunity to take Taiwan, and force the US to back down. And when the 82nd Airborne began to land in Okinawa, they knew that had to move quickly, or lose this opportunity.

Thus began the Taiwan War.

It's hard to come up with a backplot that makes a Chinese/Taiwan invasion enjoyable as a game. China will not invade Taiwan as long as the US Navy is in a position to intervene, but, if Taiwan stands on its own without US help, it will lose. So, the trick was to put something together where China would have a timelimit to achieve its objectives, plus a little extra bonus time, before the USN re-established superiority in the Taiwan Strait and blew anything Red Chinese out of the water.

The assumption is made in this scenario that Taiwan's not insignificant naval forces would have their hands full keeping the Chinese naval forces at bay -- and, they would eventually be overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers, especially given Chinese improvements in naval equipment. So, the Chinese/Taiwanese naval war is fought 'off map'. Likewise, it's assumed that
once the US Navy gets involved, the surviving Chinese Navy is toast -- and that neither the Chinese nor the Americans wish to make it a general war, so counterstrikes will be limited to targets within the theatre.

The time limit is based on the idea that, under the given scenario, China would have a week of naval freedom, followed by the destruction of their naval forces, cutting off naval supply from China and thus leading to their eventual defeat. So, they would have approximately a week to do what they can, and then hopefully muddle things in the United Nations -- and their position about a week after that would heavily influence the outcome. If they're still winning, the US will probably grant concessions (regardless of what the Taiwanese want), because of their commitments elsewhere. If they're losing, the US will push that advantage to make sure China doesn't cause trouble as they're putting out all their other fires.

As well, if within the first week or so, the PRC achieves massive superiority, the Taiwanese government would more likely surrender than continue fighting. Once the US commits significant forces to the island's defence though, it will be a fight till the end.

The event engine can be heavily upgraded -- I probably should have something to make the end game much more variable (since it's all based on politics), but, I just wanted to get this version out. I doubt I'll be able to support it, but, if you want to offer suggestions or threats, my email address is below.

Orders of Battle for the Chinese/Taiwanese sides are very conjectural. Both sides are very secretive, and both OOBs are basically culled from various websites around the Internet. I can't vouch for their reliability, but they 'feel' okay. Same with locations of units, that's a complete guess as well. The PRC one, in particular, has more first class units and more sealift than should be available for an invasion of Taiwan within the timeframe of the game. However, the problem was, with the 'realistic' OOB the PRC got clobbered every time (even with minimal US Army intervention.) They couldn't even take Taipei before time ran out, and the US intervened.

American OOBs are derived from DoD sources, public Internet sources, and published accounts. They're not 100% accurate either (as nobody really knows right now, given that the US military is in a state of flux -- if Rumsfeld gets his way, the 1st Cav may not even exist as a division in 2005), but they should be close enough.

The PO is pretty straightforward -- either attack like crazy or defend like crazy. I doubt it'll offer any challenge to a strong player, but, it's fun to watch the computer beat itself up. Allied forces are under shock effects until around Turn 4, to reflect operational surprise. Refugees will hamper movement around Taipei and Tai-nan for the entire game. A Gureilla movement will spring up as shock wears off (note that the hexes in Nanjing that switch to blue control are because Falung Gong decides to march :) ) -- it's a bug, and I couldn't figure an easy way to fix it. Starting Turn 5, PRC supply levels start to drop, until by Turn 24, they're almost non-existent. By that point, your only hope is to dig in and hang on and hope the US Army goes somewhere else. And swear at PLAN and PLAAF for not being able to keep those damn USN subs at bay.

One other bug -- I've playtested using the PO on both sides, sveral times and during one test, the PRC somehow secured nuclear release and nuked Okinawa. I couldn't figure out how it hapened, so, keep an eye out for it. If you can figure it out, let me know.

I hope you have fun with this. It's not meant as a serious recreation of the strategic situation, it's just a fun what-if game scenario. So, play it in that spirit, and I hope you have fun and enjoy it. And, if not, you've got a map of Taiwan at 10km scale, and some OOBs to play with.