Civil War in El Salvador

The civil war in El Salvador was real, but this scenario is just a generic example of fighting in the war. The rebel forces are split into eastern (FMLN) and western (ERP) factions, which are a bit hostile to each other, though they are both against the government. This scenario assumes that Castro has been able to get the Salvadoran rebels to set aside their differences in order to launch a combined offensive against government forces.

The rebels have the support of miscellaneous leftist allies as well as a promise of powerful support from the Nicaraguan Sandinistas next door. However, to aid the Salvadoran rebels, the Sandinista forces will first have to overcome the secret CIA base on Tiger Island in the Gulf of Fonseca.

The FMLN and ERP have a difficult task ahead, for while the government's conventional units are sluggish, they are also huge and powerful.

Once again, we see the difficulties of bringing a guerrilla war into its final, offensive phase as well as the special problems of defending against it. In this particular scenario, the rebels have a great deal of foreign support but have not properly prepared to bring the war into a conventional setting--note the almost total absence of regular (as opposed to insurgency / guerrilla) units. As we have seen many times in history, it is possible to run around the jungle for years with a few guerrilla units, operating in a defensive role; but to capture the cities and seize political power, conventional units are required. Remember the Vietnam War--in movies, all we see is the vietcong running around in their black pajamas, but when Saigon did finally fall, please note that the flag on top of the Soviet-made T-55 rolling into the city was the flag of North Vietnam. No black pajamas, no vietcong. Conventional power is the key to victory.

In this scenario, there is simply insufficient conventional power to bring the rebels to victory. To achieve victory in such conditions would require a miracle or gross stupidity on the part of the enemy, neither of which should form the basis of wise military planning.

There is another variant of the scenario which assumes that the ERP has made peace with the government, but since rebel victory is already so unlikely even with a rebel alliance, such a variant deserves no attention. One small advantage which the rebels do have in this scenario, however, is surprise. Because the government believes that the rebels are impotent, they have not taken the proper precautions and are shocked by the initial rebel assault. This shock will not last long, so the rebels must act very quickly to exploit this small advantage for all it is worth. In the end, however, surprise is rarely decisive in military history because its benefits disappear with time as the natural equilibrium of forces reasserts itself. Surprise is useful but is never a substitute for raw military power. In this scenario, it will probably not be sufficient to bring the rebels to power.