SADDAM'S FINAL GAMBLE

This scenario is dedicated to the brave men and women of the US-led coalition who lost their lives in an attempt to bring liberty to the people of Iraq.

After months of intense negotiations and debate in the United Nations Security Council it is clear to everyone that there will be no decisive action on the part of the council to bring Iraq into full compliance with Security Council resolution 1441. President Bush refuses to accept this outcome and forms a "coalition of the willing," including Great Britain and Australia, to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein.

The scenario begins on 18 March 2003, one half-day prior to when hostilities actually broke out. This "grace period" is to give the Iraq commander one final chance to reposition his forces without being hindered by coalition air power. On 19 March Operation Iraqi Freedom will begin.

Victory conditions are somewhat involved but are fully detailed in this briefing.

Victory for the coalition player can be achieved in one of two ways. The first is a normal victory based on capture of victory point objectives (VP) and points for destruction of enemy units. It should be noted that the US-led coalition has far less tolerance for large numbers of casualties than the Iraqi side. As a result, the casualty attrition divider has been adjusted to favor the Iraqi side 4-1.

The second method in which the US-led coalition can achieve victory is defined in terms of EEV (event engine variable) points. There are numerous key locations spread throughout the map that will trigger EEV points when captured by the coalition player. EEV points are different than regular victory points. They are awarded only when the US-led coalition seizes a location and are permanent. That is, if the Iraqi side recaptures that particular objective it does not reduce the coalition player's current EEV total. If at any time the coalition player amasses 100 EEV points it will result in an instant coalition win. EEV points are awarded for the following key objectives:

To achieve victory the Iraqi player needs to prohibit the coalition from ever capturing 100 EEV points. If the Iraqi player denies the coalition player the 100 EEV he needs, the scenario will end with a normal tally of victory points somewhere between turns 52-55. There is a 30% chance the scenario will end on turn 52. This chance will increase by 10% every turn until turn 55. The scenario will end no later that turn 55 at the latest.

1. A supply point will be created at the following locations shortly after coalition forces secure the area:

2. The chemical weapons plant on the outskirts of Najef is an important location, although it does not have an EEV value. if this location is captured it will cause Saddam to execute some of his senior leadership possibly throwing the Iraqi side into disarray.

3. If coalition forces manage to move into the Karbala Gap (the narrow strip of land between the city of Karbala and the Euphrates River) there is a chance the Iraqi player may invoke chemical weapons. If he does so it will likely lead to international condemnation and an additional 30 VP to the coalition player.

4. Basrah is a hotbed of Iraqi resistance. Political events will not permit a frontal assault on the city, and coalition forces are under strict orders to minimize civilian casualties. The resistance in Basrah must be eliminated, but British forces may not enter the city proper until the Shi'ite leadership has had an opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire. If British forces enter the city before this happens (which will be announced by a news event) it will likely lead to large numbers of civilian casualties. This would be a political windfall for Saddam Hussein and undermine the coalition war effort.

5. Saddam's weapons of mass destruction are a major concern. Finding and destroying all the Iraqi SCUD missile launchers is a top priority for the coalition player. If all four batteries are destroyed the coalition player receives 25 VP.

1. Call for Jihad: Late in the game the Iraqi player will receive a theater option to call for a jihad uprising. Activating this option will release a small number of diehard Fedayeen Saddam in some large urban areas. There is no penalty for activating this option.

2. Shock and Awe: When the scenario starts the coalition player has the option of deciding when to launch the "shock and awe" campaign. When the campaign begins it will send hundreds of precision-guided weapons to strike key targets within Iraq. This shock effect will be dramatic, but will not last long. The coalition player should carefully choose the timing of this event to maximize his own advance, however, as coalition forces move into Iraq political events will intervene and the option will be withdrawn after several days if it is not used.

3. Sabotage Oil wells: Early on in the game the Iraqi player will receive a theater option to destroy his own oil wells and set them on fire. If he chooses to do so it will temporarily halt the coalition advance, but will immediately grant 30 VP to the coalition player.

1. The Iraqi player may not intentionally blow bridges over the Tigris or Euphrates Rivers as a means to slow down the coalition advance. Both of these rivers are major obstacles to land movement and forcing the coalition player to repair them would greatly extend the length of the scenario and is simply beyond the scope of this effort.

2. The Iraqi player should refrain from blowing bridges over smaller waterways as well. Players should agree on this point prior to the start of the scenario.

4. Coalition B52, B1 and B2 bomber units may not be set to combat support or pure interdiction missions. These units must be used for specific bombing missions.

Special thanks to "Wild" Bill Wilder for his initial encouragement, and for the use of his 1991 Iraqi Army data.

Special thanks to Daniel McBride for his assistance with the more advanced functions of the ACOW editor.