Briefing
KOREA 2005 With significant contribution by Nick Dowling, Jeff Riddolls and Warfarehq.com's crew. I want to thank the invaluable input and the great map from Nick Dowling (Case at WargameHQ) for the wonderful map and the data plunder on www.globalsecurity.org and other sites. 1. BACKGROUND In the spring of 2005, Kim Jong-Il is informed that the DPRK's nuclear research has borne more fruit: the country will be able to produce a thermonuclear weapon by the end of the year to add to its already fast growing nuclear arsenal of tactical nukes. At the same time, the US Bush administration insists that further aid for the starving country be withheld until the North allows a full investigation of its nuclear program by the UN. Convinced that once he has the H-bomb he will be able to deal from a position of strength, Kim flatly refuses.President Bush is more and more convinced that even as US troops are bogged down in Iraq and that more are preparing fo a possible attack on Iran, he must wield the "sword of Freedom" to "Bring Freedom" to the third member of the "Axis of Evil" and orders plans for preemptive war against North Korea. The two countries are set on a collision course! The poor spring harvest does little to improve the food situation in the North. By November, it is apparent that winter will bring widespread starvation. On May 5th, Kim announces the DPRK's near possessesion of the hydrogen bomb, and demands "reparations" for the "sabotage" of the Northern economy by the Republic Of Korea. The response is not what he expected. An American-sponsored UN resolution is passed, requiring that the DPRK terminate its nuclear weapons program and surrender the existing weapons before aid is resumed. As hunger spreads, reports of growing unrest in the DPRK start filtering south. Kim is backed into a corner: even if he yields to the UN demands, the needed aid will likely not arrive in time to save his regime. Publicly, North Korean diplomats make conciliatory statements. 2. THREE OPTIONAL SCENARIOS 2.1. "Do nothing" - North Korea attacks the South Kim has decided that only an attack on the South might keep him in power, irrationally concluding that victory will fill the stomachs of his countrymen. The attack is timed to begin early June 2nd morning. At 0100, as a light snowfall dusts the hills around Seoul, the beginning of the Second Korean War is announced by the roar of a massive artillery barrage. US and South Korean forces are caught by surprise. President Bush's warnings about North Korea are taken seriously by the international community that commits to send troops to Korea - hopefully before disaster strikes the South. 2.2. "Another member of the Axis of Evil must fall" - USA launches preemptive war against the North. President Bush declares that the situation of the North is unacceptable and that it is the duty and mission from God of the United States of America to free and bring freedom to the tyrannised people of North Korea. Despite protest from South Korea and of the international communist, a strong contingent of Air Force, Army, National Guard and other USA forces is mobilized and about to be sent to Korea. Governements of Tony Blair's United Kingdom, Silvio Berlusconi's Italy, John Howard's Australia all commit and send forces to the region. Scared, Kim Jong Il orders mobilisation on June 1st, as the new "coalition of freedom" starts to deploy in South Korea. Early on the 2nd of June, the first strikes of the USAF bombers hit North Korean nuclear facilities and military targets, while waves of North Korean infantry storm the DMZ. 2.3. "Korean Reunification" - South Korea attacks North Korea As the starvation worsens in North Korea, the Republic of Korea announces that it had developed a new equipment of troops and forces with new weapons and that it will not stand idle as the northern part of the "Korean Nation" starves to death. While receiving limited support from the US, the Republic of Korea launches an attack on the crumbling North to prevent it falling into chaos and mass starvation. On June 2nd 2005, the first clashes happen on the DMZ, as North Korean troops launch a desperate offensive to pre-empt the coming invasion. Have fun! 3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS 3.1. Theater Options North Korea has the option to launch guerrillas against the South at any time. North Korea has the option to use Chemical Weapons at any time (See consequences below). North Korea has the option to increase its Chineese equipment and arm a few units with it at a VP loss - only available on turn 1 North Korea has the option to increase its Russian equipment and arm a few units with it at a VP loss - only available on turn 1 The US/ROK can choose one (and only one) of three options: - "Do Nothing" (North Korea attacks the South) - "Another member of the Axis of Evil must fall" (USA attacks North Korea) - "Korean Reunification" (South Korea attacks North Korea) Both sides will have the option of using Nuclear Weapons based on certain rules and conditions (see below) 3.2. Events Theater Recon for the US/ROK player will increase significantly over time. The North Korea player will get a strong shock bonus on the first few turns to simulate the infiltration and ability to wage surprise attack (even if the option of the US or South Korea to attack is choosen). This shock bonus will be reduced quickly. If North Korea penetrates the South, its troops will see the living standards of the south and suffer from morale as they will understand that they have been lied upon. The US/ROK will suffer refugee effects near Seoul for the first 20 turns and near Pusan for most of the scenario (as refugees from Seoul area will arrive and settle in the southern tip of the peninsula. North Korean infiltrators will conduct guerrilla warfare for a few turns (level: 5%.) North Korea will be able to use chemical "WMD" from the start. North Korea will be able to use its nuclear arsenal if the US forces uses nuclear weapons and/or if enemy forces near Pyongyang the US forces will be able to use Nuclear weapons (with big VP penalty - as it will show US lack of restraint) if the North Korea uses Chemicals or Nuclear. The US nuclear arsenal will be much much larger and stronger than the North Korean one. If a nuclear weapon is used on North Korea, there is a small chance that North Korea attempts to strike on the US mainland as retaliation. Should that occur, the North Korean player will win large amount of "pyrric victory points" for the destruction caused on the USA. If North Korea uses Nuclear weapons and not the US, there is a chance that China enters the war against North Korea to "clean up" this mess. If certain conditions are met, Japan will enter the war on a limited scale or full scale. 4. HOUSE RULES If the nuclear option is used: Only North Korean SSM missiles (Except Scuds and Frogs) can make Nuclear strikes Only US Air Force and USNavy units (Including Otmmahawk missiles) may make Nuclear strikes 5. NOTES 5.1. North Korean player Time is your biggest enemy - get the armored and mech troops into Seoul as quickly as possible, at any cost. Mutual destruction with the ROK divisions north of the city, clearing the way for 820 Corps, is a perfectly good goal for IV Corps. You have artillery to spare; if you find a soft enemy unit (especially HQ's and helicopters) in the open, vaporize it. Your amphibious tanks and numerous special forces units have the handy ability to sneak across the River Han, and useful for raiding rear areas. Use the guerrilla units in the south to cut supply/rail lines, or go after the air units. But face it, you will only have a few turns of fun where your air and sea lift capacity and early shock bonuses and still existing air units will be around to allow your offensive. After that you will have to hang on your conquests and hope for good defensive skills to protect them and counter the offensive and amphibious landings in your rear. You have however an almost unlimited manpower reserve but little spare equipment. Protect as best as you can your units with anti-air artillery and missiles as you'll find out that the US and Korean air forces will pound your troops into destruction and low morale. As for using chemical and nukes, well, it is a risky strategy, first because it may not work, second, because it may provoke a counter strike that will make you even weaker (although it will give you political victory points) 5.2. US/ROK player If North Korea goes on the offensive: Stall, delay, and dig in, but don't make yourself completely immobile. If the North Korean player can get a lot of units through the first line of defences and reach Seoul, expect a lot of destruction there. Minor counteroffensives can be surprisingly effective, especially against lone North Korean units that get a little too far in front of the main force. The NK guerrilla units are a relatively minor concern. Don't pull units out of the cities to deal with them, but use local police forces and reserve units. Consider using some of your airpower to hunt artillery units in the early turns. Once and if you have repelled the North Korean initial attacks (first 10 turns or so) you will be able to build up your forces for the proper invasion of North Korea. This will be difficult but you have the advantage of mobility and air power. Use your amphibious/air landing sites wisely and decisively, it will be better to focus your attacks into powerful ones rather than many small ones If US attacks North Korea : You will have great numbers of air units and new US/British/Australian/Italian forces to pound and attack North Korea, but also fewer reinforcements, and you can kiss goodbye to Japan or china's help - even perhaps having China helping North Korea? You will have also the house rule of South Korean forces defending, but not entering deep into North Korea and so risk a high level of casualties that will hit on your Victory Points. Also the risk of North Korea mobilizing its chemical and nuclear arsenal will be higher and sooner, so you'll have to seek out and destroy North Korean WMD units faster. It will be tough and may bring you to face North Korean use of Nuclear Weapons. Use your air forces to neutralise and destroy as many North Korean units and facilities as you can and softening an invasion corridor/landing of your choosing, as otherwise, you'll have to break through the full North Korean armies. If "Korean Reunification" South Korea will benefit from more units (stronger preparation and armament program) but you will have fewer reinforcements. North Korea may still attack the South "preventively" but it will suffer of less surprise bonuses. This may be the most balanced scenario, as both forces will be facing challenges. The chances of WMD use will be lower and if the South Korean is successful, it may be that the North moral will collapse. Piero Falotti

Briefing

KOREA 2005

With significant contribution by Nick Dowling, Jeff Riddolls and Warfarehq.com's crew.
I want to thank the invaluable input and the great map from Nick Dowling (Case at WargameHQ) for the wonderful map and the data plunder on www.globalsecurity.org and other sites.

1. BACKGROUND

In the spring of 2005, Kim Jong-Il is informed that the DPRK's nuclear research has borne more fruit: the country will be able to produce a thermonuclear weapon by the end of the year to add to its already fast growing nuclear arsenal of tactical nukes. At the same time, the US Bush administration insists that further aid for the starving country be withheld until the North allows a full investigation of its nuclear program by the UN. Convinced that once he has the H-bomb he will be able to deal from a position of strength, Kim flatly refuses.President Bush is more and more convinced that even as US troops are bogged down in Iraq and that more are preparing fo a possible attack on Iran, he must wield the "sword of Freedom" to "Bring Freedom" to the third member of the "Axis of Evil" and orders plans for preemptive war against North Korea. The two countries are set on a collision course!

The poor spring harvest does little to improve the food situation in the North. By November, it is apparent that winter will bring widespread starvation. On May 5th, Kim announces the DPRK's near possessesion of the hydrogen bomb, and demands "reparations" for the "sabotage" of the Northern economy by the Republic Of Korea.

The response is not what he expected. An American-sponsored UN resolution is passed, requiring that the DPRK terminate its nuclear weapons program and surrender the existing weapons before aid is resumed. As hunger spreads, reports of growing unrest in the DPRK start filtering south. Kim is backed into a corner: even if he yields to the UN demands, the needed aid will likely not arrive in time to save his regime.

Publicly, North Korean diplomats make conciliatory statements.

2. THREE OPTIONAL SCENARIOS

2.1. "Do nothing" - North Korea attacks the South

Kim has decided that only an attack on the South might keep him in power, irrationally concluding that victory will fill the stomachs of his countrymen. The attack is timed to begin early June 2nd morning. At 0100, as a light snowfall dusts the hills around Seoul, the beginning of the Second Korean War is announced by the roar of a massive artillery barrage.
US and South Korean forces are caught by surprise. President Bush's warnings about North Korea are taken seriously by the international community that commits to send troops to Korea - hopefully before disaster strikes the South.

2.2. "Another member of the Axis of Evil must fall" - USA launches preemptive war against the North.

President Bush declares that the situation of the North is unacceptable and that it is the duty and mission from God of the United States of America to free and bring freedom to the tyrannised people of North Korea. Despite protest from South Korea and of the international communist, a strong contingent of Air Force, Army, National Guard and other USA forces is mobilized and about to be sent to Korea. Governements of Tony Blair's United Kingdom, Silvio Berlusconi's Italy, John Howard's Australia all commit and send forces to the region. Scared, Kim Jong Il orders mobilisation on June 1st, as the new "coalition of freedom" starts to deploy in South Korea. Early on the 2nd of June, the first strikes of the USAF bombers hit North Korean nuclear facilities and military targets, while waves of North Korean infantry storm the DMZ.

2.3. "Korean Reunification" - South Korea attacks North Korea

As the starvation worsens in North Korea, the Republic of Korea announces that it had developed a new equipment of troops and forces with new weapons and that it will not stand idle as the northern part of the "Korean Nation" starves to death. While receiving limited support from the US, the Republic of Korea launches an attack on the crumbling North to prevent it falling into chaos and mass starvation. On June 2nd 2005, the first clashes happen on the DMZ, as North Korean troops launch a desperate offensive to pre-empt the coming invasion.

Have fun!

3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

3.1. Theater Options

North Korea has the option to launch guerrillas against the South at any time.
North Korea has the option to use Chemical Weapons at any time (See consequences below).
North Korea has the option to increase its Chineese equipment and arm a few units with it at a VP loss - only available on turn 1
North Korea has the option to increase its Russian equipment and arm a few units with it at a VP loss - only available on turn 1
The US/ROK can choose one (and only one) of three options:
- "Do Nothing" (North Korea attacks the South)
- "Another member of the Axis of Evil must fall" (USA attacks North Korea)
- "Korean Reunification" (South Korea attacks North Korea)
Both sides will have the option of using Nuclear Weapons based on certain rules and conditions (see below)

3.2. Events

Theater Recon for the US/ROK player will increase significantly over time.
The North Korea player will get a strong shock bonus on the first few turns to simulate the infiltration and ability to wage surprise attack (even if the option of the US or South Korea to attack is choosen). This shock bonus will be reduced quickly.
If North Korea penetrates the South, its troops will see the living standards of the south and suffer from morale as they will understand that they have been lied upon.
The US/ROK will suffer refugee effects near Seoul for the first 20 turns and near Pusan for most of the scenario (as refugees from Seoul area will arrive and settle in the southern tip of the peninsula.
North Korean infiltrators will conduct guerrilla warfare for a few turns (level: 5%.)
North Korea will be able to use chemical "WMD" from the start.
North Korea will be able to use its nuclear arsenal if the US forces uses nuclear weapons and/or if enemy forces near Pyongyang
the US forces will be able to use Nuclear weapons (with big VP penalty - as it will show US lack of restraint) if the North Korea uses Chemicals or Nuclear. The US nuclear arsenal will be much much larger and stronger than the North Korean one.
If a nuclear weapon is used on North Korea, there is a small chance that North Korea attempts to strike on the US mainland as retaliation. Should that occur, the North Korean player will win large amount of "pyrric victory points" for the destruction caused on the USA.
If North Korea uses Nuclear weapons and not the US, there is a chance that China enters the war against North Korea to "clean up" this mess.
If certain conditions are met, Japan will enter the war on a limited scale or full scale.

4. HOUSE RULES

If the nuclear option is used:

Only North Korean SSM missiles (Except Scuds and Frogs) can make Nuclear strikes
Only US Air Force and USNavy units (Including Otmmahawk missiles) may make Nuclear strikes

5. NOTES

5.1. North Korean player

Time is your biggest enemy - get the armored and mech troops into Seoul as quickly as possible, at any cost. Mutual destruction with the ROK divisions north of the city, clearing the way for 820 Corps, is a perfectly good goal for IV Corps.

You have artillery to spare; if you find a soft enemy unit (especially HQ's and helicopters) in the open, vaporize it. Your amphibious tanks and numerous special forces units have the handy ability to sneak across the River Han, and useful for raiding rear areas.
Use the guerrilla units in the south to cut supply/rail lines, or go after the air units.

But face it, you will only have a few turns of fun where your air and sea lift capacity and early shock bonuses and still existing air units will be around to allow your offensive. After that you will have to hang on your conquests and hope for good defensive skills to protect them and counter the offensive and amphibious landings in your rear. You have however an almost unlimited manpower reserve but little spare equipment. Protect as best as you can your units with anti-air artillery and missiles as you'll find out that the US and Korean air forces will pound your troops into destruction and low morale.
As for using chemical and nukes, well, it is a risky strategy, first because it may not work, second, because it may provoke a counter strike that will make you even weaker (although it will give you political victory points)

5.2. US/ROK player

If North Korea goes on the offensive:

Stall, delay, and dig in, but don't make yourself completely immobile. If the North Korean player can get a lot of units through the first line of defences and reach Seoul, expect a lot of destruction there. Minor counteroffensives can be surprisingly effective, especially against lone North Korean units that get a little too far in front of the main force.

The NK guerrilla units are a relatively minor concern. Don't pull units out of the cities to deal with them, but use local police forces and reserve units. Consider using some of your airpower to hunt artillery units in the early turns. Once and if you have repelled the North Korean initial attacks (first 10 turns or so) you will be able to build up your forces for the proper invasion of North Korea. This will be difficult but you have the advantage of mobility and air power. Use your amphibious/air landing sites wisely and decisively, it will be better to focus your attacks into powerful ones rather than many small ones

If US attacks North Korea :

You will have great numbers of air units and new US/British/Australian/Italian forces to pound and attack North Korea, but also fewer reinforcements, and you can kiss goodbye to Japan or china's help - even perhaps having China helping North Korea? You will have also the house rule of South Korean forces defending, but not entering deep into North Korea and so risk a high level of casualties that will hit on your Victory Points. Also the risk of North Korea mobilizing its chemical and nuclear arsenal will be higher and sooner, so you'll have to seek out and destroy North Korean WMD units faster. It will be tough and may bring you to face North Korean use of Nuclear Weapons. Use your air forces to neutralise and destroy as many North Korean units and facilities as you can and softening an invasion corridor/landing of your choosing, as otherwise, you'll have to break through the full North Korean armies.

If "Korean Reunification"

South Korea will benefit from more units (stronger preparation and armament program) but you will have fewer reinforcements. North Korea may still attack the South "preventively" but it will suffer of less surprise bonuses. This may be the most balanced scenario, as both forces will be facing challenges. The chances of WMD use will be lower and if the South Korean is successful, it may be that the North moral will collapse.

Piero Falotti