|
Eastern Europe, June 22, 1944, USSR army of 736 units opposed to Axis army of 584 units for a battle of complexity 2.05 at Division(XX) level on a 20 Km/Hex map for 52 turns of Full Week each. by Brian Topp submited on 02-01-2003 Rugged-Defense Playing Statistics
|
||||||||||||||||||
| Briefing |
|---|
|
Operation Bagration (to Berlin) The Soviet Conquest of Germany June 22, 1944 - May 1945. Version 2.00 New with this update: (1) German rifle squads are properly assigned 1944 AT equipment, and heavy panzer regiments get their appropriate icons. The AT equipment ups the ante somewhat for Soviet offensives - although German infantry divisions still cannot long withstand attacks by Soviet armour corps without help from panzer "fire brigades". (2) The German army gets its flak units back. These give the luftwaffe some defense against airbase attacks, and also provide the Axis side with some moderately resilient 88 mm-equipped tank-delaying "ant" units (sometimes particularly good in fortifications). To preserve game balance, some missing army-level tank brigades reappear in the OOBs of appropriate Soviet armies just before offensives. (3) German reinforcements arrive in smaller formations. This allows for more subtle PO orders, and more flexible deployment by a player. (4) The order of battle of 2nd Panzer Army occupying Yugoslavia is more accurately portrayed. The order of battle of Tito's force (the "NOV I POJ" or NOVJ, People's Liberation Army and Partisan Detachments of Yugoslavia - Narodnooslaobodilaeka vojska I partisanski odredi Jugoslavije) is also more accurately set out. (5) The programmed opponent's objectives have been tweaked on both sides. Some inconsistencies in the replacement priorities set-up are corrected. Some small errors in the events are corrected. Scenario overview: This scenario simulates Operation Bagration, the Soviet destruction of Army Group Centre, and then follows the eastern war to its conclusion. Victory: A full historical victory requires the Soviets to destroy substantially all German forces represented in the game, and to completely occupy Germany and its possessions to the "Soviet stop line" indicated on the map. This is what the Soviet player should aim to do, and this is what the Germans should seek to prevent. Here's a possible supplementary victory scheme when playing PBEM: the game can be stopped and a 100% Soviet victory declared if the Soviets get to their stop line by the 1st turn in May 1945. Reduce Soviet victory and increase Axis victory by 10% for every additional turn it takes to do so. Thus May turn 2: Soviets 90, Germany 10. May turn 3: Soviets 80, Germany 20. May turn 4: Soviets 70, Germans 30. June turn 1: Soviets 60, Germans 40. June turn 2: soviets 50, Germany 50. June turn 3: Germany wins the game (and the British army is considered to have occupied Berlin, to the universal relief of its inhabitants!). Then compare this result to how it worked out on points. Victory points work as follows: Key objectives In Germany: 14,44 (Berlin), Value:99. 25,63 (Wien), Value:50. 33,33 (Konigsberg), Value:20.* In Romania: 69,62 (Chisinau), Value:50.* 63,74 (Buceresti), Value:25.* In Hungary: 34,64 (Budapest), Value:25.* In the "Czech protectorate": 18,54 (Prag), Value:10. In Poland: 36,44 (Warszawa), Value:20.* 48,52 (Lwow), Value:20.* In the Baltics and Belarus: 41,22 (Riga), Value:20.* 55,33 (Minsk), Value:20.* Other objectives (all value: 2) 10,48 (Halle) 10,51 (Gera) 10,53 (Plauen) 11,49 (Leipzig) 12,52 (Zwickau) 13,52 (Chemnitz) 14,56 (Pilsen) 15,51 (Dresden) 16,39 (Stettin) 19,50 (Gorlitz) 23,45 (Poznan) 25,50 (Bresau) 25,73 (Zagreb) 27,35 (Danzig) 27,41 (Bydgoszcz) 28,46 (Kalisz) 28,62 (Bratislava) 28,83 (Split) 30,52 (Gleiwitz) 32,46 (Lodz) 33,37 (Allenstein) 34,53 (Cracow) 35,86 (Dubrovnik) 38,70 (Subotica) 42,66 (Bekesosaba) 42,75 (Beograd) 43,63 (Debrecen) 44,30 (Kaunas) 44,35 (Grodno) 44,70 (Timisoara) 45,65 (Oradea) 49,25 (Daugavpils) 51,37 (Baranowicze) 57,25 (Polotsk) 60,35 (Bobruysk) 62,28 (Orsha) 63,31 (Mogilev) You will note that objectives are widely-distributed throughout the Axis-controlled area. This creates an incentive on points for the German player to attempt to defend at least key centers everywhere. An early pullback to a fortress Germany produces an early loss on points. To provide a further incentive in this direction, major objectives marked with an asterisk (*) before "forward supply centers" for the Red Army if captured - i.e. a supply point appears there if and when they fall to the Soviets. Winning these forward supply points is almost essential to the Soviets if they wish to maintain a battle-ready army for the final phases of this campaign. The German player would thus do well to try to defend them at least with some determined "festungs". The on-its-face curious victory points awards for 69,62 (Chisinau), Value:50.* and 63,74 (Buceresti), Value:25.* are explained in a note below. A unit in the game represents the "Fuhrerbunker". Destruction of this unit by the Soviets does not end the game or produce a victory - but it does reduce German supplies and reinforcements to zero. The Germans should therefore work hard to defend their Fuhrer - and the Soviets should aim for him. Some other interesting matters: Relative merits of the PO: Based on my own style of play, the PO will put up an entertaining fight if you control the Axis and let the computer control the Soviet side. If you want to play the Soviets and have the PO control the Germans, you'll have more fun if you operate within the rough constraints of history and real-world Soviet logistics (i.e. leave the units facing AG Narva and AG South Ukraine on defense until turn 10 or so; leave the units facing AG North Ukraine on defense until turn 5 or so; when conducting offensives in Belarus and Poland/Prussia stay on defense in the Balkans; when attacking in the Balkans go over to defense in Poland/Prussia). In a PBEM game, of course, anything goes. No one should doubt the Soviets have an overwhelming advantage, and that the only suspense is how much time the Germans can play for. Delaying a soviet win past the historical date (1st turn in May) should be a very satisfying outcome for the German side in a PBEM game. A summary of "house rules": Some voluntary self-restraint is required when playing PBEM or against the PO. I suggest respecting the following "house rules": (a) Soviet units cannot cross the "Soviet stop line". (b) Rumanian units cannot leave Rumania and Moldova; (c) Ustasas units cannot leave Yugoslavia. (d) Titoite partisans cannot leave Yugoslavia. (e) Soviet partisans in Belarus cannot operate outside of the 1939 Soviet border (i.e. cannot operate in the Baltics, Poland, Germany, etc.). (f) The "Fuhrerbunker" must be left in Berlin. The Fuhrerbunker: Located in the heart of Berlin, the "Fuhrerbunker" is where Adolf Hitler, Goebbels and a shrinking cadre of Nazi leaders will go to wait out the last weeks of the war. German replacements and supply collapse if this unit is destroyed (i.e. are reduced to zero), giving the Axis player a strong incentive to defend it and the Soviets a good reason to hunt it. House rule: the bunker must be left in Berlin. Refugees: As the Soviets drive deeper into the German empire, refugees become a bigger issue for both sides. Basically, the bigger the city and the more of it occupied by German nationals, the wider the refugee effect on both sides once it falls to the Russians. For the Axis, this reflects the civil defense catastrophe the Nazi regime (and the western occupation administrations) faced when the citizens of Germany's eastern territories (more than 10 million of them) fled or were driven out by advancing Russian and Polish units. For the Soviets, refugee effects reflect the discipline problems, and deflection from combat duties, that flowed from the remarkable amount of looting and rape indulged in German-populated centers. Rumania: Romania presents an interesting puzzle to the Axis player - and a priorities decision for the Soviets. At the game begins, Rumania's key gain from the Russian war - Moldova (Bessarabia) - is defended by perhaps the strongest German army group on the eastern front, Army Group South Ukraine. Despite constant entreaties by Guderian and others to withdraw to the Carpathians, the Germans have a good reason to defend this dangerously exposed salient: gaining this province was the key reason Rumania joined the war, and if they lose it, they will give up on the war immediately and defect to the Soviets (thus the huge victory point award for the territory). However, the destruction of Army Group Centre makes it imperative to pull armour out of this sector and to rush it to the gaping hole likely to be forming in Belarus. What then? With the German infantry in place PLUS the Rumanian army, the Germans can likely defend the existing line against the tired, regenerating Soviet forces facing them. The Rumanians are an increasingly unreliable ally on any terms, however. At some point they will defect, perhaps catastrophically stranding AG-South Ukraine in exposed, cut-off lines (as occurred historically). There is therefore a very fine cost-benefit decision to make on this front. Soviet considerations: At some point the Soviet offensive against Army Group Centre will run out of steam - and Rumania will be an obvious next Soviet target. The forces facing this part of the front need time to regenerate after a busy spring. Attack too early, and they may shatter in your hands. Delay too long, and your forces in Belarus might do the same - exhausted from an operation pursued too long. House rule: Rumanian units cannot leave Rumania or Moldova. Hungary: Hungary stood with Nazi Germany longer than most, having been richly rewarded for her loyalty with territorial gains to the north, east and south. But the Hungarian government would become more and more agitated as the Soviets approached Budapest. Finally, in the fall of 1944 the Hungarian government and military command defected to the Russians. They didn't have much to bring with them, however, since the Hungarian army had largely been destroyed. To simulate this, Hungarian units stick with the Germans, but are brittle and do not regenerate. Croatian Ustasas: A Croatian fascist regime governed an enlarged Croatian state (including Bosnia) in 1944 - planting the seeds of a future civil war with a vicious pogrom against Serbs everywhere it could get its hands on them. Croatian units served with the German army during the Russian war, and worked closely with the SS to occupy Yugoslavia. They would put up a fairly determined fight against the Soviets and Tito in defense of their volkstaat - but were starved of supplies by the Germans, and thus also shatter and do not regenerate in this game. House rule: Croatian Ustasas units cannot leave Yugoslavia. Yugoslav partisans: In the summer of 1944, after a lot of history (including an attempt to negotiate a modus vivendi with the German occupiers), Josip Tito cut a deal with Stalin to equip fourteen partisan divisions - sufficient to give the Croatians and the SS a run for their money in western Yugoslavia, and to begin clearing much of the country. However, if the Soviets delay an offensive into the Balkans too long, Tito will find himself in a more unequal fight. House rule: Yugoslav Titoist partisans cannot leave Yugoslavia. Belarus partisans: By this point in the war, the great Russian, Ukrainian and Belarus partisan armies had largely fulfilled their mission and were on the cusp of being dismantled and subsumed into the Red Army (and many of the partisan movement's leaders were about to be shot, being as they were dangerously independent-minded). There was one last job to do, however - cutting the rail lines in the rear of Army Group Centre, and blocking key transport lines to prevent reinforcements and retreats there. A handful of partisan units in Belarus simulate this last great contribution. House rule: Belarus partisans cannot leave pre-1939 Russia (ie. Cannot enter the Baltics, Poland, or any other territory.). German Supplies and replacements: German war production peaked just about when Operation Bagration kicked off, trembled at around that level into the late fall, and then began to plunge as allied bombing took its toll - and the western allies began to occupy the Ruhr. Thus, about two-thirds of the way into the game, German supplies and replacements will begin to dry up. In the result, German units will regenerate more and more slowly, and will recover less readily from battle if they survive it. Thus, the realities of German production force the German player to take great care to conserve reserves for the final battles. Soviet supplies: Soviet supplies, on the other hand, continue to grow in the end game. Soviet major offensives: At the launch of Bagration and at two other points in the game, the Soviets will accumulate sufficient supplies to stage major offensives (the latter two shorter than the first). A shock effect simulates the effect. Weather: The winter 1944/45 battles were the fourth winter of war on the eastern front. Germany fought much of it on interior lines close to home. This scenario therefore does not include some of the dramatic weather effects on logistics appropriate to earlier phases of the war. Design folks: This scenario is based on Game Designer Workshop's immortal Fire In The East/Scorched Earth, my copies of which has been victim of many grim cat moments over the years. Design and set-up by Brian Topp. The map is based on a design by Benny Walhberg, a TOAW saint doing much to keep the game alive. OOBs based on research by Chet Pool (many thanks; here's the scenario at last!). TO&Es and some OOBs are based on work by Trey Marshall, notably in his scenario "Storm on the Reich" (someday he'll hopefully get it out of "playtest" - it's a heroic entire-European-war take on the same era). My implementation of these TO&Es was corrected in turn by Eric Rutins. German panzer division TO&Es based on Jentz' Panzertruppen. Reinforcement schedule and air set-up based on GDR's Scorched Earth. Thanks to Dave Ferguson for commenting on earlier versions of this build and demonstrating some truths about an earlier scenario (Operation Blau) to doubters. I'm grateful for the comments and help from many players over the past two years in this and other projects, and particularly to Tom Porto for much help in earlier TO&Es, and to Dennis Dubberley for an earlier version of the game map. Comments and suggestions gratefully received. Send 'em to briantopp@home.com. |