This scenario simulates a surprise attack on Israel by a coalition of Arab states, led by Syria.

Having achieved surprise, the Arab allies enjoy a few days of superiority - and must use this time extremely well to decisively smash the Israelis.

If the Israelis can hold the Arab allies off, more or less, they'll be able to mobilize a superior force and chase the Arab armies out - perhaps all the way back to their capitals.

The result is a highly fluid tank battle - initially with the Arab allies pursuing a hair-on-fire offensive and the Israelis on desperate defense. If the Arabs flag, then the tables turn.

The Arab allied player wins by successfully invading and occupying northern and Central Israel and Palestine. Tel Aviv is the key objective - it yields the most victory points, and is where Israeli reinforcements arrive.

The Israelis win by ejecting the Arab allies from Israel and Palestine, and then taking the war to the enemy capitals.

The Arab allied player wins by successfully invading and occupying northern and Central Israel and Palestine. Tel Aviv is the key objective ? it yields the most victory points, and is where most Israeli reinforcements arrive. Any Arab toehold in Israel at the end of the war would be a significant victory in geopolitical terms, and this is reflected in the victory point scheme.

The Israelis win by ejecting the Arab allies from Israel and Palestine, and then taking the war to the enemy capitals

It is 2005, and the United States has most of its navy, air force and every one of its ten remaining ground, airborne and marine divisions in Asia, attempting to help defend South Korea and Taiwan from an assault by China and North Korea.

The Golan Heights and South Lebanon are demilitarized.

A weak Palestinian Authority occupies cities on the West Bank.

In Israel, the government is paralyzed by a showdown between government coalition partners. The Israeli Cabinet has not met for ten weeks, while the Knesset?s 25 separate political parties claw at each other.

A small part of the debate is over long-term underfunding of the Israeli intelligence services ? whose senior officials are therefore also preoccupied, and fail to notice a trickle of ambiguous reports pointing toward a concentration of Syrian, Jordanian, Lebanese and Iraqi forces...

In Damascus, a planning staff of Syrian and a few mercenary former Soviet general staff officers have been working together on an operational plan for over ten years. Working quietly with the military staffs of their allies, they have been waiting for precisely this opportunity ? a distracted and unprepared enemy, with a superpower patron fully engaged elsewhere.

This scenario assumes that Israel enjoy a significant military edge over its neighbors ? but has been caught napping.

The Israelis start with only four divisions on active duty.

The Moshe armoured division and the Golani mechanised division face Syrian forces from prepared positions facing the demilitarized Golan Heights.

The Lev armoured division watches Syrian and Lebanese forces in Lebanon.

The Rachel armoured division watches Jordan.

In addition to these forces, the Sabra mechanized brigade watches the Palestinian Authority?s weak police forces. Israeli parachute, artillery, and attack helicopter units round out the active force.

If they are on their game, the Arab allies will stage an overwhelming offensive on all fronts, simultaneously. You can expect:

For four long turns, while the Israeli army scrambles to mobilize, you will face the Arab allies with nothing but your start forces.

Except when faced with an irresistible opportunity, you are strictly on the strategic defensive for all of this time, fire-fighting between a series of tank battles, trading the very little precious space you have for time.

Beginning on turn 4, Israeli reserve divisions begin to mobilize and enter the battle. A new division will enter every two turns until turn 18 ? and if all goes well, the correlation of forces will shift in your favour. At some point between turns 10 and 18 (about mid-point in the game) the advantage will switch decisively, and it will be time to take the offensive.

Your prospects of winning depend on how well you have succeeded in your defense in the initial stages of the game. If Tel Aviv is ringed with Arab divisions and the rest of Israel is overrun and occupied, your goal is to expel the Arab allies from the country and to achieve a draw.

If you have held them reasonably well away from the coast, then you have the luxury of choosing how big a win to go for.

This scenario assumes that Syrian, Jordan and Lebanon have also achieved substantial equipment upgrades through a variety of patrons.

Lebanon is assumed to have enjoyed a close defense relationship with France (it former League of Nations mandate power) and its arms manufacturers. This has enabled the Lebanese to slowly build up a single mechanised division, with a regiment of modern Leclerc tanks, and two mechanised regiments equipped with reasonably modern French equipment. The Lebanese also have a few modern French aircraft.

Syria is assumed to have upgraded its forces with substantial numbers of modern Russian tanks -- available cheap, given conditions in Russia. This has permitted the Syrians to field several armoured divisions equipped with T-90 tanks. The Syrians also field several second-echelon divisions with legacy equipment. The Syrians deploy a reasonably strong airforce built on a mix of modern and legacy Russian planes.

Jordan is assumed to have built up its forces with aid from Britain. In the result the Jordanians field a well-equipped armoured division (with modern Challenger II tanks). The balance of the Jordanian army is well trained but less well equipped.

Finally, the Iraqi 3rd corps will intervene in the war with a corps composed of one reasonably strong armoured division (a Presidential Guard division) and two weaker formations.

The Israelis are an extremely dangerous enemy to mess with, even through this sustained build-up has given a large numeric superiority to the Arab allies. The Allies are strongest and the Israelis weakest in the first few turns of the game.

This being so, aggression isn?t enough. The Allies must conduct a ?desperate offensive?.

Success breeds success, especially in a Middle Eastern tank battle. This is reflected in some of the events built into the game.

Divisional headquarters are priority targets. Destroying a divisional HQ produces a 1% shock event in your favour ? reflecting the rise in morale of your forces, decline in the enemy?s morale, and disruption caused by gleeful driving around in the enemy?s supplies and communications (represented by destruction of the HQ).

Army headquarters are high priority targets. Their destruction produces a 5% shock event (there are four Arab army HQs ? Syrian High Command, Arab Peacekeeping Force, Jordanian High Command, and Iraqi 3rd Corps HQ, and two Israeli ones ? NORCOM and CENCOM). Defend them well, and hunt for the enemy.

Finally, conquering key cities is also good for morale. The Arab allies get a 5% shock benefit by taking Jerusalem and a 10% boost if they take the centre of Tel Aviv. The Israelis earn a 5% boost by taking Beirut or Amman, and a 10% boost from Damascus.

I have not equipped either side with nuclear or chemical weapons. Because much of the war occurs on Israeli territory, I assume the Israelis would not fire tactical nuclear weapons. And I assume there is a ?balance of terror? on strategic use of nuclear weapons, the Israelis calculating that a nuclear strike on an Arab capital would be answered by a massive chemical weapons strike on Israeli cities.

Feel free to go into the editor and reverse this decision if you want to ? nuclear and chemical weapons certainly can make for a big mess on this remarkably small battlefield.

The scenario in its current form is designed for PBEM play, and for play against the PO as either the Israeli or Arab allied player.

Also included in this bundle is a file called ?Next War in J. (Israeli weigh)?. This is a version of the scenario you might want to try if you find it too easy to conquer Israel as the Arab player, or too hard to take the war to the Arab capitals as the Israeli.