Let me first say that I don't believe a single second that this scenario will happen. I simply do not believe that - beyond boastful propaganda and paranoid statements - China will ever attempt a military adventure to seize Taiwan. There are simply too many economical reasons why both countries will continue to actually work together and too many risks for China to try to disrupt the current balance and many other opportunities elsewhere for China to eventually flex its new military muscles.
However, for amusement's sake, I decided to attempt this scenario for TOAW.
During the 2000's PRC's economical growth was staggering. With double digits growth almost every year, the PRC's central communist party declared that it had found the way for the harmony between capitalism, socialism and nationalism. Economic and social crisis in part of the USA and Europe also seemed to prove to China that the 21st century would be Asia's and that China would have to lead it. In the early 2010's China's ruling leaders stigmatised even more Chinese nationalism and stressed the importance of the expansion and modernisation of China's military forces. Indeed, China's military went into a modernisation and reorganisation, with help of many US, Israeli, Russian and European advisors and equipment. Divisions were reorganised in combat brigades instead of regiments, the Navy was equipped with major surface combatants, and the Air force increased it's quality of training and equipment. The goal was to be able to project power throughout Asia and beyond, to secure China's vital interests in natural resources and political ambitions.
After the tumultuous US 2008 presidential elections and the subsequent "Vietraq syndrome" and budget cuts in the US military, the PRC leaders saw this an opening window of opportunity for action and to fill some of the vacuum left by the USA.
In 2014, the PRC finally decided to reunite china and to launch it's long planned invasion of Taiwan. The invasion date, to make maximum use of surprise and holiday surprise was set for the Chinese New Year of Feb 19th 2015. While people in Taiwan are partying, PRC's two airborne, army and naval forces prepare to strike!
The following day, while combat rages near Taipei and in the Formosa straights, a detachment of China's 1st Group of Armies is ready to launch its strike on the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. At dawn, over 400 artillery tubes from the 4th Artillery Division start pouring fire on Kinmen Islands, while amphibious forces are ready to strike supported by 4 regiments of ground attack aircraft.
