Briefing
Israel's War on Terror Version 2.0 7 August 2006 PBEM or Israeli Human vs. Hezbollah PO Designed to be played as the Israeli/IDF Player human. Technically it can be played as either side, but the rsults would be pretty poor. Original map by Mr. Greg Lawrence. Please bear in mind that I have designed this scenario for maximum flexibility and not necessarily for the players to follow the historical battle plan. I encourage you to try different options over what the IDF did historically The number of mobilized IDF troops can vary from game to game. Maybe you will spend two weeks softening up Hezbollah, maybe you'll go in with maximum force as soon as your forces are mobilized. Maybe you'll go it with just one IDF Udgah. Maybe you'll decide to take on Syria early, or after Hezbollah has been destroyed or not at all. The point is this scenario is designed for you to make the choices not me!!!!!!!!!! "And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom" (Matthew 24:6-7). 1. Units color 1.1. Side One Israel - black and sky blue on white backgrounds Israel Territorial - gray and dark blue on white backgrounds 1.2. Side Two Hezbollah - white and black on gray backgrounds Hezbollah Irregular - tan and black on gray backgrounds Lebanese Army - white and green on tan backgrounds Lebanese civilians - black and yellow on yellow background Syria - yellow and black on green backgrounds 2. Special rules 1. The Arab player will gain 5 VPs for every Civilian unit destroyed by IDF units. This is due to world commendation of Israel for her "brutality." Each civilian unit represents 50 people. 2. The Arab Player MAY gain VPs for each Arab urban hex taken by the IDF. Beirut and Damascus have the highest values. 3. The IDF begins with the "Galilee" Udgah (Division) deployed on the Lebanese frontier, four Territorial Brigades and the 35th Paratroop Brigade. The 36th "Golan" is assigned to the Golan Heights watching Syria. Through Theater Optionsz the IDF player may further mobilize four (4) additional Udga (Divisions) and two (2) paratroop brigades. However, the Arab Player gains VPs for every IDF unit mobilized. Why, the IDF is a small army which relies very heavily on reserves; however, those reservists are also needed to run the economy. Every day that reservists are along the front is a day they draging down the Israeli economy. Thus the VPs are accessed to force the IDF player to utilize the best economy of force, just like the real Israeli leadership must! 4 The IDF may launch operations (declare war) against Syria but the Arab player will gain 100 VPs if the IDF does so. Think long and hard before jumping on Syria. 5. Following Turn 40 there will be an increasing chance of a ceasefire. 3. Designer's notes Do I think this ongoing (at the time of this writing) war will go as far as the scenario suggests, in a word NO! Israel has no sane reason to want to occupy either the Lebanon or Syria at this time. Unfortunately we're not referring to sane portion of the planet and events have a way of spiraling out of control. If I could sum up events in the Middle East I would say the "law of unintended consequences" seems to reign supreme! This scenario should have a lot of replay value as there are a lot of choices for the IDF in how to fight the war and how much force to use. Militarily, the IDF will win but here in the Middle East war is very political and it is very possible to totally destroy the Arab armies and still loose the war in the eyes of the world. Hopefully the rules above will give you and idea of Israel's problems in the current (28 July 2006) conflict. 4. OOB and TOE I have tried to be as accurate as possible in the OOB. I have used IDF designations for units that have fought in past wars. The IDF is very flexible so the main unit is the Brigade and the Udgah (Division) units can support any brigade in their range. The IDF TOE in the game is getting long of tooth and is falling behind the actual IDF capabilities. This is very true in APC's so I used the American "Bradley" IFV to model the new generation of IDF APCs. The Syrian OOB was largely derived from Mark Herman's "Flashpoint Golan." 5. Scenario BACKGROUND Timeline (Historical source is largely the BBC and CNN) Mar. 14-15, 1978: Operation "Litani," In reprisal for a Palestinian attack into its territory, Israel launches a major invasion of Lebanon, occupying land as far north as the Litani River. Mar. 19, 1978: The UN Security Council (UNSC) passes Resolution 425, which calls on Israel to withdraw from all Lebanese territory and establishes the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to confirm the Israeli withdrawal, restore peace and help the Lebanese government re-establish its authority in the area. Jun. 1978: Israel hands over territory in southern Lebanon not to UNIFIL but to its proxy mainly Christian Lebanese militia under Maj. Sa'd Haddad. June 1982: Operation "Peace for Galilee". IDF Forces invade Lebanon advancing up to Beirut in a variant known as Operation "Big Pines." Oct. 1983: The United States Marines 24th MAU, Battalion Landing Team 1/8 headquarters is bombed at Beirut International Airport. 244 US serviceman are killed. French Foreign Legion forces are attacked the same day with the loss of 52 lives. Apr. 11, 1996: In Operation "Grapes of Wrath", the IDF uses long range artillery to shell Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon, the southern district of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. June 3, 1999: The South Lebanon Army (SLA) completes its withdrawal from the Jazzin salient which it has occupied since 1985. Mar. 5, 2000: The Israeli cabinet votes for the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon by July 2000. May 2000: Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the United Nations establishes the "Blue Line" as a border between the two countries. May 24, 2000: After the collapse of the SLA and the rapid advance of Hezbollah forces, Israel withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon, more than six weeks before its stated deadline of 7 July. 2000-2005: Syria and Iran supply the militias in South Lebanon with arms including chemical munitions. Some sources estimate that the militia's amass over 10,000 rockets. The south Lebanon militias become very polarized with Shiites taking the reigns of many. The Fatah/PLO military wing in Lebanon disbands with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbollah taking over the region south of the Beirut-Damascus Road and the Bekaa. Syria continues to allow terrorist training camps to remain in the Bekaa Valley drawing the ire of the United States. During this period the fighting between the militias and Israel centers around the disputed Sheeba Farms area. Sept. 11, 2001: The 9/11 attacks occur in the United States with the US now taking an active combat role in the Middle East. 2002-2005: The United Sates intervention in Iraq both ties down American forces and heightens tensions in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf). Coincident with the American Iraqi efforts tensions continue to grow between the USA on one side and Syria and Iran on the other. The dispute over Iran's nuclear program gradually rises to crisis levels as both sides maneuver and accuse each other of ratcheting up the tensions. September 2003: Israeli warplanes hit southern Lebanon in response to Hezbollah's firing antiaircraft missiles at Israeli planes in the area. October 2003: Israel and Lebanon exchange gunfire in the disputed area known as Shebaa Farms. Sept. 2004: The UN Security Council adopts a resolution - aimed at Syria - demanding that foreign troops leave Lebanon. Syria dismisses the move. Feb. 14 2005: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri - a critic of Syria - is killed by a massive truck bomb blast in Beirut. 20 others were killed by the explosion - including former minister Bassel Fleihan. There are growing calls for Syria to withdraw its troops. Feb.-Apr. 2005: The US and Syria trade accusations on the death of the Former Lebanese PM. The US calls for Syria to withdrawal from Lebanon and stop interfering with Lebanese affairs. Mar. 2005: Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese rally in Beirut to show support for Syria, in addition to huge anti-Syrian demonstrations. Days after his resignation, pro-Syrian former PM Omar Karami is asked by the president to form a new government. Apr. 2005: Omar Karami resigns as PM after failing to form a government. Moderate pro-Syrian MP Najib Mikati is named as his successor. Syria says it has withdrawn all of its military forces, as demanded by the UN. June 2: Anti-Syrian journalist Samir Qasir is killed in a car bomb outside his home in Ashrafiyeh. June 2005: Anti-Syrian alliance led by Saad al-Hariri wins control of parliament following elections. New parliament chooses Hariri ally, Fouad Siniora, as prime minister. June 21: Ex-Lebanese Communist Party leader George Hawi and critic of Syria is killed when his car blows up as he travels through the Wata Musaitbi district of Beirut. July 2005: Lebanese PM Siniora meets Syria's President Assad; both sides agree to rebuild relations. Aug. 15, 2005: Disengagement - Israeli evacuation of Gaza settlements and four West Bank settlements began on August 15 and was completed August 24. Sept. 2005: Four pro-Syrian generals are charged in connection with the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri. Jan. 4, 2006: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffers a massive stroke. Ehud Olmert, takes over as the acting Israeli Prime Minister. Feb. 2006: Hamas wins the Palestinian elections, Israel and the United States cut off funding. Palestinian militants launch Kasam rockets into Israel and IDF artillery respond in a tit for tat campaign over March and April. Feb. 2006: Denmark's embassy in Beirut is torched during a demonstration against cartoons in a Danish paper satirizing the Prophet Muhammad. Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus are also set on fire. Growing Anti-Western tensions grip the Islamic World. Feb.-Mar. 2006 Tension grows over Olmert's border plans for Israel. Palestine groups launch massive protests. Tension continues to grow between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. March 2006: in a growing war of words with Iran Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad states: "Western countries know that they are not capable of inflicting the slightest blow on the Iranian nation because they need the Iranian nation. They will suffer more and they are vulnerable." And the Prime Minster threatens to inflict "Harm and Pain" on the United States. Over the next few months the United States and United Kingdom refer Iran to the UN Security Council and the IAEA. US ambassador Bolton demands strong action against Iran. July 2006: Hezbollah militants cross into Israel, kill three Israeli soldiers and kidnap two others in a bid to negotiate a prisoner exchange, a demand rebuffed by Israel. Another five Israeli soldiers are killed after the ambush. Israel responds with a naval blockade and by bombing hundreds of targets in Lebanon, including Beirut's airport and Hezbollah's headquarters in southern Beirut. Hezbollah responds with rocket attacks targeting northern Israeli cities. Fighting leaves dozens of Lebanese civilians dead and coincides with a two-week-old Israeli military campaign in Gaza in response to the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants... 6. Version 2.0 Changes 1. Corrected errors in IDF OOB. Brigade engineer companies are now indicated as being companies and not battalions. 2. Have increased the number of ATGMs in Hezbollah units. Also have added mortars and other equipment to give them more staying power. 3. There is now a very slight chance that Syria may initiate combat operations against Israel. 4. Changed Hezbollah Garrison Units to Special Forces Units. 5. Three Hundred (300) VPs have been added in The Lebanon. This should give the IDF player a better chance at an actual victory and makes the Lebanon worth more than Syria (previously they were 300 VPs. in the Lebanon and 400 in Syria.). 6. Civilian unit and force profeciencies, readiness and supply have all been reduced (25, 25 and 50 respectively). That have all now been given "Independent" and "Minimize Losses" orders. 7. The tint on the Israeli Territorial Units has been changed to gray and dark blue on white, Syria to yellow and black on green backgrounds. 8. Hezbollah Irregular units may pop up in the IDF rear areas if the IDF Player doesn't garrision them! Garrison key hexes. 9. IDF PGM rating increased to 250. 10. Game is now 120 turns/30 days in length (if it is a complete game) with up to a 20 percent chance of a ceasefire before then. Al Sandrik

Briefing

Israel's War on Terror

Version 2.0
7 August 2006
PBEM or Israeli Human vs. Hezbollah PO
Designed to be played as the Israeli/IDF Player human. Technically it can be played as either side, but the rsults would be pretty poor.
Original map by Mr. Greg Lawrence.

Please bear in mind that I have designed this scenario for maximum flexibility and not necessarily for the players to follow the historical battle plan. I encourage you to try different options over what the IDF did historically The number of mobilized IDF troops can vary from game to game. Maybe you will spend two weeks softening up Hezbollah, maybe you'll go in with maximum force as soon as your forces are mobilized. Maybe you'll go it with just one IDF Udgah. Maybe you'll decide to take on Syria early, or after Hezbollah has been destroyed or not at all. The point is this scenario is designed for you to make the choices not me!!!!!!!!!!

"And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom" (Matthew 24:6-7).

1. Units color

1.1. Side One

Israel - black and sky blue on white backgrounds
Israel Territorial - gray and dark blue on white backgrounds

1.2. Side Two

Hezbollah - white and black on gray backgrounds
Hezbollah Irregular - tan and black on gray backgrounds
Lebanese Army - white and green on tan backgrounds
Lebanese civilians - black and yellow on yellow background
Syria - yellow and black on green backgrounds

2. Special rules

1. The Arab player will gain 5 VPs for every Civilian unit destroyed by IDF units. This is due to world commendation of Israel for her "brutality." Each civilian unit represents 50 people.
2. The Arab Player MAY gain VPs for each Arab urban hex taken by the IDF. Beirut and Damascus have the highest values.
3. The IDF begins with the "Galilee" Udgah (Division) deployed on the Lebanese frontier, four Territorial Brigades and the 35th Paratroop Brigade. The 36th "Golan" is assigned to the Golan Heights watching Syria. Through Theater Optionsz the IDF player may further mobilize four (4) additional Udga (Divisions) and two (2) paratroop brigades. However, the Arab Player gains VPs for every IDF unit mobilized. Why, the IDF is a small army which relies very heavily on reserves; however, those reservists are also needed to run the economy. Every day that reservists are along the front is a day they draging down the Israeli economy. Thus the VPs are accessed to force the IDF player to utilize the best economy of force, just like the real Israeli leadership must!
4 The IDF may launch operations (declare war) against Syria but the Arab player will gain 100 VPs if the IDF does so. Think long and hard before jumping on Syria.
5. Following Turn 40 there will be an increasing chance of a ceasefire.

3. Designer's notes

Do I think this ongoing (at the time of this writing) war will go as far as the scenario suggests, in a word NO! Israel has no sane reason to want to occupy either the Lebanon or Syria at this time. Unfortunately we're not referring to sane portion of the planet and events have a way of spiraling out of control. If I could sum up events in the Middle East I would say the "law of unintended consequences" seems to reign supreme!

This scenario should have a lot of replay value as there are a lot of choices for the IDF in how to fight the war and how much force to use. Militarily, the IDF will win but here in the Middle East war is very political and it is very possible to totally destroy the Arab armies and still loose the war in the eyes of the world. Hopefully the rules above will give you and idea of Israel's problems in the current (28 July 2006) conflict.

4. OOB and TOE

I have tried to be as accurate as possible in the OOB. I have used IDF designations for units that have fought in past wars. The IDF is very flexible so the main unit is the Brigade and the Udgah (Division) units can support any brigade in their range. The IDF TOE in the game is getting long of tooth and is falling behind the actual IDF capabilities. This is very true in APC's so I used the American "Bradley" IFV to model the new generation of IDF APCs.

The Syrian OOB was largely derived from Mark Herman's "Flashpoint Golan."

5. Scenario BACKGROUND

Timeline (Historical source is largely the BBC and CNN)

Mar. 14-15, 1978: Operation "Litani," In reprisal for a Palestinian attack into its territory, Israel launches a major invasion of Lebanon, occupying land as far north as the Litani River.
Mar. 19, 1978: The UN Security Council (UNSC) passes Resolution 425, which calls on Israel to withdraw from all Lebanese territory and establishes the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to confirm the Israeli withdrawal, restore peace and help the Lebanese government re-establish its authority in the area.
Jun. 1978: Israel hands over territory in southern Lebanon not to UNIFIL but to its proxy mainly Christian Lebanese militia under Maj. Sa'd Haddad.
June 1982: Operation "Peace for Galilee". IDF Forces invade Lebanon advancing up to Beirut in a variant known as Operation "Big Pines."
Oct. 1983: The United States Marines 24th MAU, Battalion Landing Team 1/8 headquarters is bombed at Beirut International Airport. 244 US serviceman are killed. French Foreign Legion forces are attacked the same day with the loss of 52 lives.
Apr. 11, 1996: In Operation "Grapes of Wrath", the IDF uses long range artillery to shell Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon, the southern district of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.
June 3, 1999: The South Lebanon Army (SLA) completes its withdrawal from the Jazzin salient which it has occupied since 1985.
Mar. 5, 2000: The Israeli cabinet votes for the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon by July 2000.
May 2000: Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the United Nations establishes the "Blue Line" as a border between the two countries.
May 24, 2000: After the collapse of the SLA and the rapid advance of Hezbollah forces, Israel withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon, more than six weeks before its stated deadline of 7 July.
2000-2005: Syria and Iran supply the militias in South Lebanon with arms including chemical munitions. Some sources estimate that the militia's amass over 10,000 rockets. The south Lebanon militias become very polarized with Shiites taking the reigns of many. The Fatah/PLO military wing in Lebanon disbands with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbollah taking over the region south of the Beirut-Damascus Road and the Bekaa. Syria continues to allow terrorist training camps to remain in the Bekaa Valley drawing the ire of the United States. During this period the fighting between the militias and Israel centers around the disputed Sheeba Farms area.
Sept. 11, 2001: The 9/11 attacks occur in the United States with the US now taking an active combat role in the Middle East.
2002-2005: The United Sates intervention in Iraq both ties down American forces and heightens tensions in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf). Coincident with the American Iraqi efforts tensions continue to grow between the USA on one side and Syria and Iran on the other. The dispute over Iran's nuclear program gradually rises to crisis levels as both sides maneuver and accuse each other of ratcheting up the tensions.
September 2003: Israeli warplanes hit southern Lebanon in response to Hezbollah's firing antiaircraft missiles at Israeli planes in the area.
October 2003: Israel and Lebanon exchange gunfire in the disputed area known as Shebaa Farms.
Sept. 2004: The UN Security Council adopts a resolution - aimed at Syria - demanding that foreign troops leave Lebanon. Syria dismisses the move.
Feb. 14 2005: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri - a critic of Syria - is killed by a massive truck bomb blast in Beirut. 20 others were killed by the explosion - including former minister Bassel Fleihan. There are growing calls for Syria to withdraw its troops.
Feb.-Apr. 2005: The US and Syria trade accusations on the death of the Former Lebanese PM. The US calls for Syria to withdrawal from Lebanon and stop interfering with Lebanese affairs.
Mar. 2005: Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese rally in Beirut to show support for Syria, in addition to huge anti-Syrian demonstrations. Days after his resignation, pro-Syrian former PM Omar Karami is asked by the president to form a new government.
Apr. 2005: Omar Karami resigns as PM after failing to form a government. Moderate pro-Syrian MP Najib Mikati is named as his successor. Syria says it has withdrawn all of its military forces, as demanded by the UN.
June 2: Anti-Syrian journalist Samir Qasir is killed in a car bomb outside his home in Ashrafiyeh.
June 2005: Anti-Syrian alliance led by Saad al-Hariri wins control of parliament following elections. New parliament chooses Hariri ally, Fouad Siniora, as prime minister.
June 21: Ex-Lebanese Communist Party leader George Hawi and critic of Syria is killed when his car blows up as he travels through the Wata Musaitbi district of Beirut.
July 2005: Lebanese PM Siniora meets Syria's President Assad; both sides agree to rebuild relations.
Aug. 15, 2005: Disengagement - Israeli evacuation of Gaza settlements and four West Bank settlements began on August 15 and was completed August 24.
Sept. 2005: Four pro-Syrian generals are charged in connection with the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri.
Jan. 4, 2006: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffers a massive stroke. Ehud Olmert, takes over as the acting Israeli Prime Minister.
Feb. 2006: Hamas wins the Palestinian elections, Israel and the United States cut off funding. Palestinian militants launch Kasam rockets into Israel and IDF artillery respond in a tit for tat campaign over March and April.
Feb. 2006: Denmark's embassy in Beirut is torched during a demonstration against cartoons in a Danish paper satirizing the Prophet Muhammad. Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus are also set on fire. Growing Anti-Western tensions grip the Islamic World.
Feb.-Mar. 2006 Tension grows over Olmert's border plans for Israel. Palestine groups launch massive protests. Tension continues to grow between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
March 2006: in a growing war of words with Iran Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad states: "Western countries know that they are not capable of inflicting the slightest blow on the Iranian nation because they need the Iranian nation. They will suffer more and they are vulnerable." And the Prime Minster threatens to inflict "Harm and Pain" on the United States. Over the next few months the United States and United Kingdom refer Iran to the UN Security Council and the IAEA. US ambassador Bolton demands strong action against Iran.
July 2006: Hezbollah militants cross into Israel, kill three Israeli soldiers and kidnap two others in a bid to negotiate a prisoner exchange, a demand rebuffed by Israel. Another five Israeli soldiers are killed after the ambush. Israel responds with a naval blockade and by bombing hundreds of targets in Lebanon, including Beirut's airport and Hezbollah's headquarters in southern Beirut. Hezbollah responds with rocket attacks targeting northern Israeli cities. Fighting leaves dozens of Lebanese civilians dead and coincides with a two-week-old Israeli military campaign in Gaza in response to the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants...

6. Version 2.0 Changes

1. Corrected errors in IDF OOB. Brigade engineer companies are now indicated as being companies and not battalions.
2. Have increased the number of ATGMs in Hezbollah units. Also have added mortars and other equipment to give them more staying power.
3. There is now a very slight chance that Syria may initiate combat operations against Israel.
4. Changed Hezbollah Garrison Units to Special Forces Units.
5. Three Hundred (300) VPs have been added in The Lebanon. This should give the IDF player a better chance at an actual victory and makes the Lebanon worth more than Syria (previously they were 300 VPs. in the Lebanon and 400 in Syria.).
6. Civilian unit and force profeciencies, readiness and supply have all been reduced (25, 25 and 50 respectively). That have all now been given "Independent" and "Minimize Losses" orders.
7. The tint on the Israeli Territorial Units has been changed to gray and dark blue on white, Syria to yellow and black on green backgrounds.
8. Hezbollah Irregular units may pop up in the IDF rear areas if the IDF Player doesn't garrision them! Garrison key hexes.
9. IDF PGM rating increased to 250.
10. Game is now 120 turns/30 days in length (if it is a complete game) with up to a 20 percent chance of a ceasefire before then.

Al Sandrik