Toaw Scenario: Cyprus 1974 - Operation Attila

Cyprus,
July 19, 1974,

Cyprus army of 104 units opposed to Turkey army of 98 units
for a battle of complexity 0.78 at Battalion(II) level
on a 2.5 Km/Hex map
for 19 turns of Half Day each.

by Haris Riris submited on 06-08-2007

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Briefing

Cyprus 1974

Operation Attila

Version: 1.0
This scenario can be played against the PO (either side).
1. Historical background
On July 20th 1974, following a coup supported by the Greek military regime in Athens against the government of Cyprus, Turkey launched an invasion of Cyprus. The operation's code name was Operation Attila.
There were two phases to the invasion. Each phase lasted three days and there was about a three-week cease-fire between the two phases, while peace talks were going on in Geneva.
During the first phase, Turkish marines and amphibious infantry supported by small armored elements landed near Kerynia. Paratroopers and commandos reinforced the Turkish enclave north of Nicosia and linked with the bridgehead near Kerynia.
During the cease-fire, which started on 4:00 pm on July 22nd, the Turkish forces were reinforced with heavy armor and artillery from the mainland. On several occasions, they violated the cease-fire and significantly expanded their bridgehead.
During the second phase, which started early on August 14th, 1974, after the collapse of the Geneva talks, the Turkish army broke through the Cypriot National Guard lines and occupied 37% of the island.
This scenario attempts to simulate the historical record. There are however, some events that can alter the course of events.
The OOB is accurate to the best of my knowledge and was based on several sources (mostly Greek and some Turkish). The TOE is not exact. It was taken from several sources and standard NATO army TOEs.
2. Significant Events
  • There is a 50% probability that Greek air and naval elements will enter the war in Turn 3.If that happens Turkey may respond by deploying additional air units (probability 65%).
  • A cease-fire will go into effect on Turn 8 that will last for six turns unless Turkey rejects the cease-fire (see below). During the cease-fire the Turkish player will receive reinforcements, which he can transport to Cyprus.
  • If the ceasefire occurs, there is a 25% chance Greece will send the 5th Infantry Division and a Commando Battalion (starting on turn 9) and deploy some air units in Crete to Cyprus to counter the Turkish build up.
  • There is 15% probability Turkey will reject the UN sponsored cease-fire. If that happens the Turkish player may suffer a 30-victory point loss to simulate the diplomatic fallout and no cease-fire will take place. If Turkey declines the cease-fire then there is a 90% probability Greece cannot send the 5th Infantry Division to Cyprus simulating the air-naval superiority of Turkey in the area.
  • There is a 30% probability Turkey will achieve strategic surprise on Turn 2. If that happens the Cypriot player suffers an 75% shock for one turn.
  • There is a 20% chance that the Cypriot National Guard will be alerted early and attack the Turkish Cypriot enclaves on turn 1 (July 19th PM). If that happens the strategic Turkish strategic surprise event (above) is cancelled. This is to give the Cypriot player a chance to win the game and introduce a "what-if" element into the scenario.
  • There is a range of 3 turns in the mobilization of the Cypriot National Guard reinforcements (reserve battalions).
  • If the Greek-Cypriot sector of Nicosia (46, 45) is occupied by Turkish forces, the Cypriot forces suffer a permanent 80% shock after 4 turns. The shock does not go into effect if the Cypriot forces recapture the hex within 4 turns.
  • If the Turkish sector of Nicosia (46, 43) is occupied by Cypriot forces Turkish forces suffer a 80% shock after 4 turns. The shock does not go into effect if the Turkish forces recapture the hex within 3 turns.
  • If Kioneli (44, 41) is occupied by Cypriot forces then Turkish forces suffer an 85% shock after 4 turns. The shock does not go into effect if the Turkish forces recapture the hex within 4 turns.
  • If the Turkish sectors of Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos, Famagusta and the village of Kofinou are captured the Turkish Cypriot forces defending those enclaves will surrender.
  • If the Turkish player occupies Kyrenia or Famagusta sea transport is increased to 3500 and 5500 respectively and a Turkish supply point is placed on the map.
  • Kyrenia harbor has an exclusion zone, which is removed after its capture by Turkey. This is to prevent the Turkish player from landing directly at Kyrenia on turn 2.
3. Known bugs
Interdiction still takes place during the ceasefire. This is known TOAWIII bug. Both players should put their air units on rest during that time.
The Turkish player must make sure that a Turkish owned line of sea hexes (sea-lane) is available from Turkey to Cyprus during the cease-fire. If any Cypriot naval units traverse sea hexes before the cease-fire they become Cypriot controlled and cannot be used by the Turkish player during the cease-fire. This is not a bug per se however, it introduces and unrealistic element of denying the Turkish player naval supremacy in the region.
4. Strategy
  • It is important for the Turkish player to occupy either Kyrenia or Famagusta as soon as possible to increase sea transport and place a supply point in the one of the ports.
  • The Turkish player should reinforce the Kioneli-Nicosia enclave as soon as possible (with Paras and Commandos) to avoid capture of high valued objectives and the shock after the fall of Nicosia and/or Kioneli.
  • The Cypriot player must contain or eliminate the Turkish bridgehead on the first few turns and delay the arrival of the Turkish armor and artillery as long as possible. Once the artillery and armored battalions arrive there is very little the Cypriot player can do.
    At the same time he must try and eliminate the Turkish enclaves scattered around the island as soon as possible so that reinforcements can be used against the main Turkish landings.
  • Neither player is allowed to attack the mainland air bases and ports (Greek or Turkish).
Haris Riris