AEGEAN 2008

In early 2008 following the sweeping victory of the AKP in the ballot box the previous summer and the subsequent election of Abdullah Gul as president of the Turkish Republic, hard line elements within the Turkish Armed Forces stage a coup and seize power. The EU suspends accession talks with Turkey and the US pressures the generals to return the country to civilian rule. The new military government under intense domestic and foreign pressure to reform tries to divert attention by embarking on a policy of confrontation towards Greece and Cyprus.

In August 2008, after repeated violations of the Athens FIR by the Turkish Air Force, a THK F-16 fighter jet is shot over the island of Lemnos by the Hellenic Air Force. Turkey responds by a massive show of force in the Aegean and movements of troops in eastern Thrace as tensions mount. An ATACMS strike against a Greek installation on the border region in Evros, provides the spark that ignites the first Greco-Turkish war of the 21st century.

The scenario starts with a ceasefire. However, hostilities may start at any turn from 1-4. The game is supposed to last a total of 12 turns after the start of hostilities. However, NATO may enforce a ceasefire 7 turns after the start of hostilities.
Before hostilities erupt both sides have limited rail transport capabilities.
Some formations from both sides are not available for orders until the start of hostilities.
If Turkey occupies Thessaloniki the Greek side suffers an 85% shock. The shock is cancelled if the Greek side recaptures the city within 2 turns.
If Greece occupies Istanbul the Turkish side suffers an 80% shock.
The shock is cancelled if the Turkish side recaptures the city within 2 turns.
Turkey suffers a loss of supply if certain cities in eastern Trace are occupied.
Turkey may also suffer a reduction in replacements is Istanbul is occupied.
If Greece attacks Ankara, Turkey may suffer loss of replacements and increased pestilence.
Greece suffers a loss of supply of certain cities in western Thrace and eastern Macedonia are occupied.
If Greece attacks Izmir there is a 70% chance the Turkish sea transport will be reduced.
If Turkey attacks Pereas there is a 70% chance the Greek sea transport will be reduced.
If Greece attacks Golcuk the Turkish surface fleet may go into garrison deployment for 1-2 turns.
Greece may also suffer a reduction in replacements is Thessaolinik is occupied.
If Turkey attacks Athens, Greece may suffer loss of replacements and increased pestilence.
If Turkey attacks Skyros (47, 46) Greek Theater recon may be reduced to 25 (from 35 initially).
If Greece attacks Balikesir (47, 46) Turkish Theater recon may be reduced to 25 (from 35 initially).
If the Greek 1st Army HQ is destroyed the Turkish player is awarded 15 VP.
If the Turkish 1st Army HQ is destroyed the Greek player is awarded 20 VP.
If the Turkish 2 Corps HQ is destroyed then 2 Corps may go into Garrison mode for 1-2 turns.
If the Turkish 5 Corps HQ is destroyed then 5 Corps may go into Garrison mode for 1-2 turns.
If the Greek D Corps HQ is destroyed then D Corps may go into Garrison mode for 1-2 turns.
If the Turkish 3 Corps HQ is destroyed then the Greek player may be awarded 10 VP.

The exact Greek and Turkish order of battle and deployments are hard to determine. Both countries are in the process of reorganization from Divisional to Brigade structure but maintaining some divisional HQs. There is considerable disagreement between different sources (even official ones), regarding the number of brigades, strength and deployment of units for both countries. I did extensive research on the OOB but could never establish the exact names and locations of the brigades, especially for Turkey. I wish to thank my friend Emre for his invaluable help with the Turkish OOB and deployments.
The equipment holdings are easier to determine and there is much better agreement between different sources. I have taken some liberties with the OOB in order to accommodate the equipment holdings.
Some Greek islands do not have anchorages. This is deliberate to force the players to use airborne or airmobile units to capture those islands. Also the players are expected to use the "disembark" feature (or bug) of TOAW to occupy those islands. That forces the attacker to spend one turn at sea and makes the amphibious force vulnerable to sea and air attacks.
A Greek-Turkish war will be fought on 3 fronts: Thrace, the Aegean Sea, and Cyprus. The Aegean battle will be primarily a naval-air battle so unfortunately that aspect of the conflict is not well modeled due to the TOAW limitations.

Have fun and please send any suggestions you may have to harisriris-lok@ yahoo.com.