Briefing
Bosnia 2012 THE SECOND BOSNIAN WAR 1. UNIT COLORS 1.1. OS BiH - BOSNIAKS (BOSNIAN MUSLIMS) Regular Infantry Brigades - Lt. Green on Green Motorized Brigades - White on Green Mehanized Brigades - Black on Green Corp Level Units - White on Brown Police and Security - Blue on Green 1.2. VRS - BOSNIAN SERBS Regular Infantry Brigades - Red on Blue Motorized Brigades - Blue on Blue Mehanized Brigades - Black on Blue Corp Level Units - White on Blue Police and Security - White on Lt. Blue Volunteers from Serbia - Black on Red 2. MAP LEGEND Objective values are representing muncipality centers approximate population. 3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS 1 - The VRS player suffers shock effects for the first 2 turns. The OS BiH player should take advantage of this time to force breaches in the line, and push as many units through as possible. 2 - OS BiH gains force supply point in Mrkonjic Grad (hex 48,39) if it mange to take the city. 3 - OS BiH supply will drop by 6 points on turn 15 to simulate the difficulties the Bosniak forces began to experience in re-supplying their units. 4 - VRS supply will drop by 8 points on turn 17 to simulate decreased supply caused by ieffect of international diplomatic preasure on Serbia to deny logistic support to Bosnian Serbs. 5 - VRS will recieve 10 permanent victory points if manage to capture Gorazde (113, 73). 6 - In case that VRS manages to enter Sarajevo from East, OS BiH will suffer severe shock, and VRS will be awarded with 50 permanent VP. 7 - In case that VRS manages to enter Sarajevo from West, OS BiH will suffer severe shock, and VRS will be awarded with 50 permanent VP. 8 - If OS BiH approaches 5 km to center of Banja Luka (52, 22), civilians will start to flee the city and VRS will have refugee effect. Also as consequence of panic VRS will suffer moderate shock for two turns. 9 - If OS BiH enters very center of Banja Luka (52, 22) the scenario ends and Bosnian player wins instantly. 4. DESIGN NOTES 4.1. VRS player Your primary goal is to defend Republika Srpska. This will not going to be an easy task as Bosnian government have more infantry troops, and geographical shape of Srpska is not appropriate for defense. This menas that, except around Gorazde in East Bosnia, you will be on defense everywhere else.You have advantage in armor and artillery but is not even a close to what VRS had during The First Bosnian War, some 20 years before. Try to block opponent moves and inflict as many casulites as possible by clever use of artillery. Also use your mehanized brigades as counter attacking force to repeal attacks and seal breaches.Only if an opportunity emerge try to expand territory by capturing enemy towns. Keep enemy at least 10 km from center of Banja Luka. 4.2. OS BiH player This is long waited opportunity to put an end over so called Republika Srpska. Future of Bosnia as a unite state depends of your performance during upcomming operations. Try to use your manpower superriority to overrun and caputure as much territory. This doesn't mean to attack everywere but to concentrate on two to three main routes of advance. There is several possible strategic cities where you can concentrate your efforts: Banja Luka, Prijedor, Doboj, Brcko, Bijeljina and area around of Sarajevo - where opposition is somewhat weaker but where also terrain is very difficult for rapid advance. Keep in mind to minimize losses as much as possible to avoid loss penalty. Keep VRS player away from Sarajevo as you will suffer severe penalties if Serbs manage to enter the city. 5. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The First Bosnian War (1992-1995) After the break up of Yugoslavia in early 1990's, Serb leaders instigated the wars in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Hrezegovina (BiH). Bosnian-Serbs were mobilized in Army of Republika Srpska (Self proclamed Serbian state within Bosnia). Largerly backed up by neighboring Serbia, it was quite clear that Serbian forces in Bosnia-Hercegovina were much better equipped in terms of firepower in the form of aircraft, artillery and tanks than their regional foes. Using equipment advantage, Army of Republika Srpska (VRS) quickly overrun weakly armed opponents in many regions of BiH and killed or expelled the local Bosnian-Croats, Bosniaks and other minorities, destroying villages, mosques and Catholic churches across BiH. They also established the notorious internment camps. Nevertheless, the Serbs did not possess enough manpower to produce a decisive military outcome across all of the regions of the BiH. Instead, they had enough strength to hold on to their initial gains (when it was in their interest to do so) and repel or punish opposition forces that tried to break the status quo. The absence of total victory meant that the cycle of violence, chaos and, to some observers, downright savagery continued at a slow pace for several years. Following the Srebrenica genocide and Markale massacre, NATO intervened during the 1995 against the positions of the Army of Republika Srpska, which internationalized the conflict, but only in its final stages. Also, at the end of 1995 it was clear that Bosnian-Moslems Army of Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ARBiH) was a much improved fighting force, but the UN arms embargo left it critically short of equipment. The ARBiH efforts helped achieve the Dayton Agreement of 14 Dec 1995, but never the clear military victories their sacrifices deserved. Political Developments Along the Road to New Conflict (1996-2010) As a result of Dayton Peace Agreemnt, BiH became one state, divided approximately along the ceasefire line into two 'entities'. These were the Bosnian-Croat Federation (capital Sarajevo) and Republika Srpska of seven regions with 63 districts in W, N and E Bosnia and E Herzegovina. Unfortunately, Dayton Agreement was not a long-term fix two semi-independent entities are linked with weak central institutions whose functioning is often obstructed by ethnic rivalries. Serbs claim that the complex government system are designed to undermine their position and absorb them into stronger central state. As a result Bosnian-Serbs has wanted to secede from Bosnia and has blocked democratic reforms. In 2010 political situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina has further deteriorated. Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb prime minister, called for a referendum enabling the Serbs of Bosnia to secede. In an interview published in the Belgrade media, Dodik said a referendum on independence was "inevitable" since Bosnia-Herzegovina had no long-term future. As a reaction Bosniak leaders stated if it continues to go on like this, there is no question there will be conflict. Lord Ashdown, who served as the international community's High Representative in Bosnia from 2002 until 2006, has also sounded the alarm. "This is a crucial moment and if the international community fails to address it, Bosnia risks slipping towards disintegration," he said. The War Begins: The Bosnian War in 2012 (Hypotetical) Despite all warnings, Referendum was held at december 2011. After declaring independence Serbs started to build chekpoints and control traffic into and out of their teritory. Before the weak central government could act Serbs also claimed all military equipment on their soil, and declared (re)cration of Army of Republika Srpska (VRS), a military force independent from official Armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina (OS BiH). By february 2012, Bosnia was clearly drifting toward civil war. Barricades sprang up along roads and outside towns as villagers armed themselves. As Europe's ministers met yet again to discuss the future of Bosnia, the Bosnian population was already taking up arms and settling matters for themselvs on the ground. All the catalysts - paranoia, ethnic referendums, covert arming, the formation of paramilitaries - finaly came together in the first week of March in the city of Brcko. On 5 March, after staged incident, Serb forces effectively takeover Brcko, a city with main highway linking East Republika Srpska with Banja Luka, the Bosnian-Serbs capital. The Bosnia was in shock. Massive protests and demonstrations were organized in Sarajevo. Small clashes escalated across country, but niether side was ready for full scale war. Soon, Bosnian presidency ordered a full mobilization of the military and police reserves in order to stop seccession. As a response, the military command of the self-proclaimed Srpska Republic also ordered a general mobilization of Bosnian Serbs. During next two months both sides put maximum efforts into mobilization of troops and organization of military structure. At the same time, Bosnian-Croats leaders stated that their people will not directly involve into conflict betweeen Bosnian-Serbs and Bosniaks. Nevertheless, after intense preassure from the Bosniaks, they agreed at least to keep open roads and to not hinder government troops transport and logistic across Croat populated areas in Central Bosnia. Despite international protests and diplomatic effort to stop hostilities, at begining of May 2012 it become evident that war is invetable as Bosnian government carry through final preparations for offensive against Republika Srpska. It's just a question of how sucessful this military action will be?

Briefing

Bosnia 2012

THE SECOND BOSNIAN WAR

1. UNIT COLORS

1.1. OS BiH - BOSNIAKS (BOSNIAN MUSLIMS)

Regular Infantry Brigades - Lt. Green on Green
Motorized Brigades - White on Green
Mehanized Brigades - Black on Green
Corp Level Units - White on Brown
Police and Security - Blue on Green

1.2. VRS - BOSNIAN SERBS

Regular Infantry Brigades - Red on Blue
Motorized Brigades - Blue on Blue
Mehanized Brigades - Black on Blue
Corp Level Units - White on Blue
Police and Security - White on Lt. Blue
Volunteers from Serbia - Black on Red

2. MAP LEGEND

Objective values are representing muncipality centers approximate population.

3. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

1 - The VRS player suffers shock effects for the first 2 turns. The OS BiH player should take advantage of this time to force breaches in the line, and push as many units through as possible.
2 - OS BiH gains force supply point in Mrkonjic Grad (hex 48,39) if it mange to take the city.
3 - OS BiH supply will drop by 6 points on turn 15 to simulate the difficulties the Bosniak forces began to experience in re-supplying their units.
4 - VRS supply will drop by 8 points on turn 17 to simulate decreased supply caused by ieffect of international diplomatic preasure on Serbia to deny logistic support to Bosnian Serbs.
5 - VRS will recieve 10 permanent victory points if manage to capture Gorazde (113, 73).
6 - In case that VRS manages to enter Sarajevo from East, OS BiH will suffer severe shock, and VRS will be awarded with 50 permanent VP.
7 - In case that VRS manages to enter Sarajevo from West, OS BiH will suffer severe shock, and VRS will be awarded with 50 permanent VP.
8 - If OS BiH approaches 5 km to center of Banja Luka (52, 22), civilians will start to flee the city and VRS will have refugee effect. Also as consequence of panic VRS will suffer moderate shock for two turns.
9 - If OS BiH enters very center of Banja Luka (52, 22) the scenario ends and Bosnian player wins instantly.

4. DESIGN NOTES

4.1. VRS player

Your primary goal is to defend Republika Srpska. This will not going to be an easy task as Bosnian government have more infantry troops, and geographical shape of Srpska is not appropriate for defense. This menas that, except around Gorazde in East Bosnia, you will be on defense everywhere else.You have advantage in armor and artillery but is not even a close to what VRS had during The First Bosnian War, some 20 years before. Try to block opponent moves and inflict as many casulites as possible by clever use of artillery. Also use your mehanized brigades as counter attacking force to repeal attacks and seal breaches.Only if an opportunity emerge try to expand territory by capturing enemy towns. Keep enemy at least 10 km from center of Banja Luka.

4.2. OS BiH player

This is long waited opportunity to put an end over so called Republika Srpska. Future of Bosnia as a unite state depends of your performance during upcomming operations. Try to use your manpower superriority to overrun and caputure as much territory. This doesn't mean to attack everywere but to concentrate on two to three main routes of advance. There is several possible strategic cities where you can concentrate your efforts: Banja Luka, Prijedor, Doboj, Brcko, Bijeljina and area around of Sarajevo - where opposition is somewhat weaker but where also terrain is very difficult for rapid advance. Keep in mind to minimize losses as much as possible to avoid loss penalty. Keep VRS player away from Sarajevo as you will suffer severe penalties if Serbs manage to enter the city.

5. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The First Bosnian War (1992-1995)

After the break up of Yugoslavia in early 1990's, Serb leaders instigated the wars in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Hrezegovina (BiH). Bosnian-Serbs were mobilized in Army of Republika Srpska (Self proclamed Serbian state within Bosnia). Largerly backed up by neighboring Serbia, it was quite clear that Serbian forces in Bosnia-Hercegovina were much better equipped in terms of firepower in the form of aircraft, artillery and tanks than their regional foes. Using equipment advantage, Army of Republika Srpska (VRS) quickly overrun weakly armed opponents in many regions of BiH and killed or expelled the local Bosnian-Croats, Bosniaks and other minorities, destroying villages, mosques and Catholic churches across BiH. They also established the notorious internment camps.

Nevertheless, the Serbs did not possess enough manpower to produce a decisive military outcome across all of the regions of the BiH. Instead, they had enough strength to hold on to their initial gains (when it was in their interest to do so) and repel or punish opposition forces that tried to break the status quo. The absence of total victory meant that the cycle of violence, chaos and, to some observers, downright savagery continued at a slow pace for several years.

Following the Srebrenica genocide and Markale massacre, NATO intervened during the 1995 against the positions of the Army of Republika Srpska, which internationalized the conflict, but only in its final stages. Also, at the end of 1995 it was clear that Bosnian-Moslems Army of Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ARBiH) was a much improved fighting force, but the UN arms embargo left it critically short of equipment. The ARBiH efforts helped achieve the Dayton Agreement of 14 Dec 1995, but never the clear military victories their sacrifices deserved.

Political Developments Along the Road to New Conflict (1996-2010)

As a result of Dayton Peace Agreemnt, BiH became one state, divided approximately along the ceasefire line into two 'entities'. These were the Bosnian-Croat Federation (capital Sarajevo) and Republika Srpska of seven regions with 63 districts in W, N and E Bosnia and E Herzegovina.

Unfortunately, Dayton Agreement was not a long-term fix two semi-independent entities are linked with weak central institutions whose functioning is often obstructed by ethnic rivalries. Serbs claim that the complex government system are designed to undermine their position and absorb them into stronger central state. As a result Bosnian-Serbs has wanted to secede from Bosnia and has blocked democratic reforms.

In 2010 political situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina has further deteriorated. Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb prime minister, called for a referendum enabling the Serbs of Bosnia to secede. In an interview published in the Belgrade media, Dodik said a referendum on independence was "inevitable" since Bosnia-Herzegovina had no long-term future.

As a reaction Bosniak leaders stated if it continues to go on like this, there is no question there will be conflict. Lord Ashdown, who served as the international community's High Representative in Bosnia from 2002 until 2006, has also sounded the alarm. "This is a crucial moment and if the international community fails to address it, Bosnia risks slipping towards disintegration," he said.

The War Begins: The Bosnian War in 2012 (Hypotetical)

Despite all warnings, Referendum was held at december 2011. After declaring independence Serbs started to build chekpoints and control traffic into and out of their teritory. Before the weak central government could act Serbs also claimed all military equipment on their soil, and declared (re)cration of Army of Republika Srpska (VRS), a military force independent from official Armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina (OS BiH).

By february 2012, Bosnia was clearly drifting toward civil war. Barricades sprang up along roads and outside towns as villagers armed themselves. As Europe's ministers met yet again to discuss the future of Bosnia, the Bosnian population was already taking up arms and settling matters for themselvs on the ground.

All the catalysts - paranoia, ethnic referendums, covert arming, the formation of paramilitaries - finaly came together in the first week of March in the city of Brcko. On 5 March, after staged incident, Serb forces effectively takeover Brcko, a city with main highway linking East Republika Srpska with Banja Luka, the Bosnian-Serbs capital. The Bosnia was in shock. Massive protests and demonstrations were organized in Sarajevo. Small clashes escalated across country, but niether side was ready for full scale war.

Soon, Bosnian presidency ordered a full mobilization of the military and police reserves in order to stop seccession. As a response, the military command of the self-proclaimed Srpska Republic also ordered a general mobilization of Bosnian Serbs. During next two months both sides put maximum efforts into mobilization of troops and organization of military structure.

At the same time, Bosnian-Croats leaders stated that their people will not directly involve into conflict betweeen Bosnian-Serbs and Bosniaks. Nevertheless, after intense preassure from the Bosniaks, they agreed at least to keep open roads and to not hinder government troops transport and logistic across Croat populated areas in Central Bosnia.

Despite international protests and diplomatic effort to stop hostilities, at begining of May 2012 it become evident that war is invetable as Bosnian government carry through final preparations for offensive against Republika Srpska. It's just a question of how sucessful this military action will be?